'Middle East war' alarm in global markets: How are stock exchanges performing worldwide?

Rising tension in the Middle East has led to a negative atmosphere in global markets. Investors have now turned their attention to the US ADP private sector employment data to be announced today.

Questions regarding the situation of the conflicts in the Middle East and whether the fight against inflation worldwide will result in a recession continue to dampen risk appetite.

Yesterday, the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps announced that it had launched a ballistic missile attack on Israel.

Tension remains high in the region following Israel's threats to retaliate and Iran's statements that it would respond more severely if retaliated against.

On the other hand, according to data released yesterday, the number of JOLTS job openings in the US rose to 8 million 40 thousand in August, coming in above market expectations.

Following the missile attacks launched by Iran on Israel last night, officials from both countries made statements indicating that they would continue their mutual attacks

US EMPLOYMENT DATA AWAITED

Analysts stated that this data fueled concerns that there could be a cooling in the labor market beyond expectations, adding that the employment data to be released on Friday remains the focus of investors.

In the country, construction spending fell by 0.1 percent to 2 trillion 132 billion dollars in August, contrary to expectations of an increase.

The US Institute for Supply Management (ISM) manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) came in at 47.2 in September, below market expectations. S&P Global's manufacturing PMI data was also revised upward to 47.3. The indices indicated that the contraction in the manufacturing sector in the country continues.

Employment data will be an indicator of 'recession' risks in the US. The data will also directly affect the possible interest rate steps the Fed will take

IRAN'S ATTACK INCREASED SHARE PRICES OF ENERGY COMPANIES

While the rise in tension in the Middle East positively affected the shares of some defense and energy companies, there was a decline in the shares of cruise companies due to concerns that bookings could be harmed by the conflicts.

Shares of US defense company Lockheed Martin, the prime contractor for the F-35 fighter jet, gained nearly 4 percent, and shares of Northrop Grumman gained over 3 percent. Shares of RTX, the manufacturer of the Patriot missile system, rose by approximately 3 percent, and shares of General Dynamics rose by 1 percent.

Among cruise companies, shares of Carnival fell by 2.5 percent, Norwegian Cruise Line by 3 percent, and Royal Caribbean Cruises by 2.3 percent.

WILL THE FED CUT INTEREST RATES?

While the expectation that the Fed will make a 75 basis point cut by the end of the year remains strong in money market pricing, a 25 basis point interest rate cut is projected for November with a 60 percent probability.

With these developments, the US 10-year bond yield is currently at 3.75 percent, while the dollar index started the day at 101.2.

After geopolitical risks increased, the ounce price of gold gained 1.1 percent yesterday, and is currently trading at 2,656 dollars, 0.3 percent below the previous close.

The barrel price of Brent oil, after gaining 3.4 percent yesterday due to the effect of the tension in the Middle East, is currently at 74.5 dollars, 0.3 percent above the previous close.

Yesterday, the Dow Jones index fell 0.41 percent, the S&P 500 index 0.93 percent, and the Nasdaq index 1.53 percent. Index futures contracts in the US also started the day with a negative trend.

In European stock markets, a sales-weighted trend was observed yesterday, excluding the UK, as concerns about conflicts in the Middle East increased.

HOW DID THE TURMOIL IN THE MIDDLE EAST AFFECT EUROPEAN STOCK MARKETS?

Europe's banking index led the losses with a 2.84 percent decline. While shares of technology companies fell by an average of 0.65 percent, shares of automotive companies lost 1.17 percent in value.

On the macroeconomic data side, falling energy prices yesterday pushed the inflation rate in the Eurozone to its lowest level in three years in September. Prices of goods and services in the region increased by an average of only 1.8 percent compared to the same month last year.

Annual inflation in the Eurozone fell below the 2 percent target that the European Central Bank (ECB) considers ideal for the Eurozone economy in the medium term for the first time in over 3 years.

In addition, while the manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) in the Eurozone fell by 0.8 points to 45 points in September, the manufacturing PMI in Germany remained weak despite coming in above expectations at 40.6.

In the UK, the manufacturing sector PMI data continued its growth in line with expectations at 51.5 in September, while business confidence fell to its lowest level in 9 months.

Analysts said that the signals received from these data increased expectations that the ECB will continue to loosen monetary policy and will lower the policy interest rate again in October.

Yesterday, the DAX 40 index in Germany fell 0.58 percent, the CAC 40 index in France 0.81 percent, and the FTSE MIB index in Italy 1.04 percent, while the FTSE 100 index in the UK rose 0.48 percent. Index futures contracts in Europe started the day with a mixed trend.

INCREASING RISKS IN ASIAN MARKETS SCARED INVESTORS

While a negative trend prevails in Asian markets on the new trading day, excluding Hong Kong, transactions are not taking place in China due to the holiday.

Although the increasing tension in the Middle East dampened risk appetite in Asian markets, Hong Kong continues to perform positively due to the effect of the economic stimulus packages announced by China.

On the other hand, yesterday, Ishiba Shigeru, the new leader of the ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) in Japan, was elected prime minister of the country at an extraordinary session held in the House of Representatives.

Ishiba is expected to hold office until the early general elections planned for October 27.

According to data released today, the consumer confidence index for September in Japan came in at 36.9, below expectations.

The dollar/yen parity, which completed the day yesterday with a 0.1 percent decrease at 143.57, is currently at 143.9 with a 0.2 percent increase.

Near the close, the Nikkei 225 index in Japan fell 1.8 percent and the Kospi index in South Korea fell 0.6 percent, while the Hang Seng index in Hong Kong rose 5.8 percent.

Yesterday, the BIST 100 index in Borsa Istanbul, which followed a sales-weighted trend, completed the day at 9,351.22 points with a 3.25 percent decrease compared to the previous close.

The dollar/TL, which closed at 34.1978 with a horizontal trend yesterday, is trading at 34.2080, just above the previous close, at the opening of the interbank market today.

Analysts noted that foreign exchange assets and liabilities of non-financial firms will be followed domestically today, and the unemployment rate in the Eurozone and ADP Private Sector Employment data in the US will be followed abroad, noting that 9,300 and 9,200 points are support levels and 9,500 and 9,600 levels are resistance levels for the BIST 100 index.

The data to be followed in the markets today are as follows:

12.00 Eurozone, August unemployment rate

14.30 Turkey, July foreign exchange assets and liabilities of non-financial firms

15.15 US, September ADP Private Sector Employment