Global markets show mixed performance

While ongoing geopolitical risks and a busy data calendar are influencing the direction of asset prices, it is believed that the Fed's meeting minutes may provide clues regarding future policies.

Analysts stated that global equity markets have started the first week of the new year cautiously, noting that macroeconomic data to be released throughout the week could increase market volatility.

Drawing attention to the importance of the employment report to be released in the US on the final trading day of the week, analysts noted that the JOLTS job openings data to be released in the country today could also provide insights into the labor market.

While it is considered a certainty in money market pricing that the Fed will keep interest rates unchanged at its January meeting, it is projected that the first rate cut will likely occur in March with a 77 percent probability.

On the other hand, the US public debt reached 34 trillion dollars with an increase of 2.6 trillion dollars in 2023, while according to data released yesterday, the US manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) was revised from 48.2 to 47.9 for December.

News flow regarding the US and Iran facing off in the Red Sea is increasing volatility in oil prices, and developments on the subject remain in the focus of investors.

The barrel price of Brent oil, which has extended its downward trend to the fifth consecutive trading day, is currently trading at 75.8 dollars with a 0.1 percent decrease.

The US 10-year bond yield, which rose by 6 basis points to 3.94 percent yesterday, is currently moving sideways.

The ounce price of gold, which completed the day at 2,058 dollars with a 0.2 percent decrease yesterday, is trading at 2,065 dollars today, 0.3 percent above its previous close.

The dollar index, which closed the day at 102.2 with a 0.9 percent increase yesterday, is currently at 102.1, 0.1 percent below its previous close.

Volatility has also been prominent in cryptocurrencies in the first days of the new year, and with expectations that the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) may approve Spot Bitcoin Exchange Traded Fund (ETF) applications from some institutions, Bitcoin exceeded 45,000 dollars yesterday for the first time since April 2022. It is currently trading at 45,175 dollars, 0.9 percent above the previous close.

On the equity market side, Apple shares lost 3.6 percent in value yesterday after Barclays downgraded the company's rating, citing weak iPhone sales.

Nvidia shares fell by over 2 percent due to ongoing geopolitical tensions in the semiconductor industry.

Following the Dutch government's announcement that it had revoked export licenses for photolithography machines used in the production of high-tech chips to China, shares of the Dutch company ASML also recorded a decline of over 5 percent.

Other semiconductor stocks, including AMD, Intel, and Qualcomm, also lost value following the news. AMD shares fell nearly 6 percent, Intel shares nearly 5 percent, and Qualcomm shares over 3 percent.

Tesla shares, however, followed a flat trend despite the number of vehicles the company delivered in the fourth quarter of the year exceeding estimates at 484,507 and helping it reach its 2023 target.

Shares of US tech companies Meta lost over 2 percent, while Google, Microsoft, and Amazon shares lost over 1 percent in value.

Following these developments, a mixed trend was observed on the New York stock exchange, with the S&P 500 index recording a 0.57 percent decrease, the Nasdaq index a 1.63 percent decrease, and the Dow Jones index a 0.07 percent increase. Index futures in the US also started the new day with a mixed trend.

A mixed trend was also observed in Europe on the first trading day of the new year.

Data released across the region yesterday continued to provide negative signals regarding economic activity.

The manufacturing PMI in the UK remained below expectations at 46.2. Thus, the manufacturing PMI in the UK has shown contraction for 17 months.

The manufacturing PMI, announced as 43.3 in Germany and 44.4 in the Eurozone, remained below the 50 threshold despite exceeding expectations.

The euro/dollar parity, which completed the day at 1.0940 with a 0.9 percent decrease yesterday, is currently at 1.0960, 0.2 percent above its previous close.

Yesterday, while the FTSE 100 index in the UK recorded a 0.15 percent decrease and the CAC 40 index in France a 0.16 percent decrease, the DAX 40 index in Germany gained 0.11 percent and the MIB 30 index in Italy gained 0.57 percent. Index futures in Europe also started the new day with a mixed trend.

While trading did not take place in Japan today due to a holiday, a negative trend prevailed in other Asian stock markets.

The death toll from the earthquakes in Japan has risen to 64, and it was reported that aftershocks are still continuing.

Near the close, the Hang Seng index in Hong Kong fell 1.2 percent, the Shanghai composite index in China fell 0.2 percent, and the Kospi index in South Korea fell 2.1 percent.

In the domestic market, the BIST 100 index at Borsa Istanbul, which followed a buying-weighted trend yesterday, completed the day with a 2.06 percent gain at 7,624.29 points, while eyes are now turned to inflation data today.

The dollar/TL rate is trading at 29.7610 at the opening of the interbank market today, after closing the day at 29.7344, 0.5 percent above its previous close yesterday.

Economists participating in the AA Finance Inflation Expectation Survey estimate that the Consumer Price Index (CPI) will increase by 3.19 percent in December.

Analysts stated that inflation in the country, unemployment rate in Germany, JOLTS job openings data in the US, and the Fed's latest meeting minutes will be monitored today, noting that from a technical perspective, 7,700 and 7,800 points are resistance levels for the BIST 100 index, while 7,600 and 7,500 levels are support positions.