Global markets show mixed performance

With the possibility of a "soft landing" for the US economy, the S&P 500 and Dow Jones indices hit record closing highs on the New York Stock Exchange, while selling pressure is taking effect in Asia at the start of the new day.

While data in the US yesterday pointed to the economy remaining strong, slowing inflation in Japan has raised questions in the markets.

US Gross Domestic Product (GDP) grew by an annualized 3.3 percent in the October-December period of 2023, exceeding expectations of 2 percent.

In the last quarter of last year, the personal consumption expenditures price index, the Fed's preferred inflation gauge, recorded a 1.7 percent increase. The core personal consumption expenditures price index, which excludes food and energy expenditures, rose by 2 percent in the same period, in line with market expectations.

Despite the slowdown in inflation in the US, positive signals from economic activity have increased the likelihood of a "soft landing" in the economy, while pricing in money markets has strengthened expectations that the US Federal Reserve (Fed) could begin interest rate cuts in March.

With these developments, the US 10-year bond yield, after falling by approximately 6 basis points yesterday, continued its downward trend in the new day, dropping to 4.10 percent.

On the commodities side, the barrel price of Brent crude oil gained more than 2 percent on forecasts that demand could remain strong in the coming period, and is finding buyers at 81.7 dollars in the new day.

The ounce price of gold is hovering at 2,023 dollars, up 0.2 percent from the previous close.

On the other hand, the revenue of Intel, one of the world's largest microchip manufacturers, in the last quarter of last year increased by 10 percent, exceeding expectations. However, the fact that the company's projections for the first quarter remained below market expectations caused selling pressure to increase in the futures markets.

Yesterday, on the New York Stock Exchange, the Nasdaq index rose 0.18 percent, while the S&P 500 index rose 0.53 percent and the Dow Jones index rose 0.64 percent, hitting record closing highs. US index futures started the new day with a negative trend.

BUYING-WEIGHTED IN EUROPEAN STOCK MARKETS

While a buying-weighted trend, albeit limited, stood out in European stock markets yesterday, with the exception of Italy, the European Central Bank (ECB) kept all three key policy rates unchanged.

ECB President Christine Lagarde stated in her post-meeting statement that there was a consensus within the ECB's Governing Council that it was "premature" to discuss interest rate cuts.

Stating that short-term economic indicators remain weak, Lagarde emphasized that an improvement will be seen in the economy in the medium term and that the labor market, which is the most important reflection of the economy, continues to remain quite strong.

Noting that the general downward trend in inflation rates in the Eurozone continues, Lagarde explained that the restrictive monetary policy continues to have a comprehensive impact on the real economy.

Yesterday, the FTSE 100 index in the UK rose 0.03 percent, the CAC 40 index in France 0.11 percent, and the DAX 40 index in Germany 0.10 percent, while the MIB 30 index in Italy recorded a decrease of 0.60 percent. Index futures in Europe started the new day with a negative trend.

While markets in Asia are following a mixed course in the new day, inflation data announced in Japan has raised questions about the future policies of the Bank of Japan (BoJ).

Accordingly, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) remained well below expectations with a 1.6 percent increase in January, while analysts stated that the slowdown in inflation could delay the BoJ's normalization steps.

Near the close, the Nikkei 225 index in Japan fell 1.52 percent and the Hang Seng index in Hong Kong fell 0.5 percent, while the Shanghai composite index in China rose 0.4 percent and the Kospi index in South Korea rose 0.5 percent.

In the domestic market, the BIST 100 index on Borsa Istanbul, which followed a buying-weighted trend yesterday, completed the day with a 0.98 percent gain at 8,169.89 points, while the Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey (TCMB) increased its policy rate by 250 basis points to 45 percent.

In the announcement made by the TCMB, it was stated, "The Committee has assessed that the level of monetary tightness required for the establishment of disinflation has been reached and that this level will be maintained as long as necessary."

The Dollar/TL, after completing the day at 30.2542 with a 0.1 percent increase yesterday, is trading at 30.3110 at the opening of the interbank market today.

Analysts stated that the data agenda is calm domestically today, while consumer confidence index in Germany and personal income and expenditures data in the US will be followed abroad, and noted that technically, the 8,250 and 8,350 levels are resistance and 8,100 and 8,000 points are support for the BIST 100 index.

The data to be followed in the markets today are as follows:

10.00 Germany, January GfK consumer confidence index

16.30 US, December personal income and expenditures