Global markets start the week cautiously

As global markets continue to search for direction amid uncertainty regarding central bank monetary policies, eyes this week have turned to inflation data to be released worldwide.

While questions continue to be raised about whether the steps taken to combat inflation globally are sufficient, volatility in asset prices remains strong.

Analysts noted that the Consumer Price Index (CPI) data to be released in the US on Tuesday could be influential on the future policies of the US Federal Reserve (Fed), recalling that Fed Chair Jerome Powell stated last week, "We will not hesitate to tighten monetary policy further if necessary."

Stating that the US CPI is expected to rise by 0.1 percent monthly and 3.3 percent annually in October, analysts expressed that volatility in the markets could increase if the data falls outside expectations.

According to data released on Friday, the consumer confidence index measured by the University of Michigan fell by 3.4 points on a monthly basis in November to 60.4, coming in below market expectations and hitting its lowest level in 6 months.

Consumers' short-term inflation expectation recorded its highest value since November 2022 at 4.4 percent in the same period, while long-term inflation expectation recorded its highest value since 2011 at 3.2 percent.

While selling pressure was seen to continue in the country's bond markets, the US 10-year bond yield stabilized at 4.66 percent on the first trading day of the week.

The dollar index ended its four-day winning streak on Friday and started the week flat at 105.8.

The ounce price of gold tested 1,929.6 dollars, its lowest level in approximately the last month, on the first trading day of the week, while the barrel price of Brent oil carried its three-week downward trend into the new week. The ounce price of gold is currently finding buyers at 1,938 dollars with a flat course, while a barrel of Brent oil is finding buyers at 80.5 dollars, 1.2 percent below its previous close.

Analysts emphasized that the signals to be received from the meeting between US President Joe Biden and Chinese President Xi Jinping, who will meet face-to-face again after about a year, could be influential on the direction of the markets.

Over the weekend, US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen stated that they had agreed with China's Vice Premier He Lifeng, who is responsible for economic relations, to "intensify communication," and reported that they are determined to work together on global challenges ranging from debt issues to economic issues related to climate change.

While the balance sheets to be released in the country this week are expected to increase stock and sector-based volatility in the markets, the balance sheets of Walmart, Target, and Cisco are being closely followed by investors.

On the New York Stock Exchange on Friday, the Nasdaq index gained 2.05 percent, the Dow Jones index 1.15 percent, and the S&P 500 index 1.56 percent. Index futures in the US started the new week with a negative trend.

While a sales-weighted trend was observed in European stock markets on Friday, eyes this week have turned to inflation data to be released across the region.

European Central Bank (ECB) President Christine Lagarde said at an event organized by the Financial Times on Friday that keeping the deposit rate at 4 percent would be sufficient to curb inflation, but that officials would consider raising borrowing costs again if they needed to.

While macroeconomic data released in the region continues to give mixed signals, inflation expectations in the region remain high.

Analysts noted that the data to be released this week could increase volatility in the markets, and stated that for now, pricing in money markets predicts that the ECB will keep the policy rate constant at future meetings.

On the last trading day of last week, the DAX 40 index in Germany decreased by 0.77 percent, the CAC 40 index in France by 0.96 percent, the FTSE 100 index in the UK by 1.28 percent, and the MIB 30 index in Italy by 0.49 percent. Index futures in Europe started the new week with a negative trend.

A cautious trend also stands out in Asian stock markets ahead of the meeting between US President Joe Biden and Chinese President Xi Jinping.

Analysts stated that the third-quarter earnings season continues in the region and that stock and sector-based volatility could increase.

Last week, Nissan Motor announced that its net profit for the third quarter increased 4-fold compared to the previous year, rising to 296.2 billion yen (1.95 billion dollars).

In China, the country's leading e-commerce companies chose not to publicly disclose their total sales figures for the "November 11 Singles' Day" online shopping festival again this year.

Analysts stated that e-commerce giant Alibaba and its rival Jing Dong (JD.com), which lead the festival, are expected to see an increase in their revenues due to the online discounted sales that continued from October 14 to November 11 during the annual festival.

Near the close, the Nikkei 225 index in Japan lost 0.1 percent, the Hang Seng index in Hong Kong 0.1 percent, and the Shanghai composite index in China 0.2 percent, while the Kospi index in South Korea gained 0.1 percent.

Domestically, the BIST 100 index in Borsa Istanbul, which followed a sales-weighted trend on Friday, completed the day at 7,771.34 points with a loss of 0.89 percent, while the balance of payments became the focus of investors today.

Economists participating in the AA Finance expectation survey expect the current account to post a surplus of 1 billion 529 million dollars in September.

The Dollar/TL is trading at 28.5570 at the opening of the interbank market today, after closing the last trading day of last week at 28.5598 with a 0.3 percent increase.

The Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey (TCMB) announced today that it will organize investor days, noting that the first of these will be held in New York on January 11, 2024.

In the announcement, it was stated, "In this context, presentations will be made on topics such as inflation, monetary policy, financial markets, and banking, and technical questions will be answered."

Analysts stated that the data agenda abroad is quiet today, while balance of payments data will be followed domestically, and noted that from a technical perspective, the 7,850 and 7,950 levels are resistance, and 7,750 and 7,650 points are support for the BIST 100 index.

The news flow regarding the Israel-Palestine conflict also continues to be the focus of investors.