Goldman Sachs issues warning on the future of the dollar
Developments in the US economy are increasing the risk of the dollar losing value. Goldman Sachs stated that the weakening in the labor market and global expectations support this outlook.
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Goldman Sachs has announced that the current state of the US economy does not support the dollar remaining strong and that the dollar may lose value in the coming period. The bank stated that the loosening in the labor market reinforces this view.
JACKSON HOLE AND INTEREST RATE CUT EXPECTATIONS
It was noted that while officials might discuss the possibility of interest rate cuts at this week's Jackson Hole meeting, it is unlikely they will signal a definitive policy change. Goldman Sachs announced that they expect three 25-basis-point interest rate cuts within the year. The Fed's rhetoric and incoming data indicate that there is still room for movement in short-term interest rates.
RISKS FACING THE DOLLAR
A lower "equilibrium employment" level, tightening in labor supply, and weak growth potential paint a negative picture for the future of the dollar. Furthermore, a low short-term natural interest rate also supports this situation.
THE STATE OF INFLATION AND CORPORATIONS
While recent data shows that consumer prices on the PPI side do not pose an obstacle to Fed policies, it also points to the existence of an uncertain and volatile economic environment for companies.