Hormuz Strait hope stirs markets: Oil below $80, gold at two-week high

News flow suggesting a potential reduction in geopolitical tensions in the Middle East has shifted pricing in global markets. The expectation that the Strait of Hormuz could reopen for safe passage has pushed oil prices down, while upward momentum has emerged in gold and stock markets.

It is reported that diplomatic contacts between Washington, Tehran, and regional actors have intensified under the mediation of Pakistan and Qatar. While it is stated that the final stages of an agreement regarding the Strait of Hormuz have been reached within the scope of the “Islamabad Agreement,” US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent also said that an agreement involving the opening of the Strait could be reached soon.

The Iranian Ministry of Foreign Affairs reported that progress has been made in talks with Oman to determine safe passage routes for ships. These statements have reduced the risk perception regarding energy supply, paving the way for a sharp decline in the oil market.

DECLINE IN OIL, RISE IN GOLD

The barrel price of Brent crude closed at $78.70 in yesterday's trading, down 6 percent. As of 06:00 Turkish time today, the price was observed at the $78.60 level. Oil prices were last traded below $80 on July 13.

With the decline in oil and weakening inflation concerns, expectations for a rate hike by the US Federal Reserve (FED) in September have also receded. While the probability of a rate hike in the markets fell from 65 percent to 58 percent, the dollar index remained below the 100 level. The US 2-year bond yield also fell to 4.19.

On the gold front, the upward trend has strengthened. While ounce gold closed at $4,077 yesterday with a 0.54 percent increase, it attempted to stabilize at levels close to $4,130 this morning. With the daily increase exceeding 1 percent, ounce gold headed toward its two-week high.

Domestically, gram gold started the morning of August 5, 2026, at the 6,315 TL level. Thus, gram gold approached its highest levels in the last 1.5 months. While the $4,120-$4,165 band is being watched as a resistance zone for ounce gold in the short term in the markets, the non-farm payroll data for July to be announced on Friday will also be followed in terms of the FED's interest rate path.

Signals pointing to a potential reduction in geopolitical tension have also brought buying to stock markets. While the BIST 100 index in Borsa İstanbul completed yesterday's trading with a 2.07 percent increase, the rise in the banking index was 2.16 percent. In the US, the S&P 500 index closed at 7,736 points with a 1.79 percent gain, setting a new record. A positive outlook also stood out in Asian markets; the rise in the Japanese stock market exceeded 3 percent, and in South Korea, it exceeded 4 percent.