Inflation expectations rise in the market

According to the Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey (TCMB) Market Participants Survey, the year-end expectation for the Consumer Price Index (CPI) has risen from 29.69% to 29.86%.

The TCMB has published its September Market Participants Survey, conducted with 69 participants consisting of real and financial sector representatives and professionals.

The participants' current year-end CPI expectation, which was 29.69% in the previous survey period, became 29.86% in this survey period. The 12-month ahead CPI expectation was 22.84% in the previous survey period

while it was recorded as 22.25% in this survey period.

The 24-month ahead CPI expectation, which was

16.92% in the previous survey period, was recorded as 16.78% in this survey period.

12-MONTH AHEAD INFLATION EXPECTATIONS

In the September 2025 survey period, when evaluating the participants' probability estimates for 12 months ahead, it was projected that the CPI would increase on average by 21.04% with a probability of 18.00% – 20.99%, by 48.85% with a probability of 21.00% – 23.99%, and by 18.40% with a probability of 24.00% – 26.99%. 

According to the evaluation based on point estimates (3) in the same survey period, it was observed that 17.19% of participants' expectations were in the 18.00% – 20.99% range, 50.00% of participants' expectations were in the 21.00% – 23.99% range, and 21.88% of participants' expectations were in the 24.00% – 26.99% range.

INFLATION EXPECTATIONS FOR 24 MONTHS AHEAD

In the September 2025 survey period, when evaluating participants' probability estimates for 24 months ahead, it was projected that the CPI would increase on average with a 20.62% probability in the 12.00% – 14.99% range, a 32.72% probability in the 15.00% – 17.99% range, and a 23.79% probability in the 18.00% – 20.99% range.

According to the evaluation based on point estimates (3) in the same survey period, it was observed that 17.86% of participants' expectations were in the 12.00% – 14.99% range, 26.79% of participants' expectations were in the 15.00% – 17.99% range, and 37.50% of participants' expectations were in the 18.00% – 20.99% range.

INTEREST RATE EXPECTATIONS

Participants' expectation for the current month-end overnight interest rate in the BİST Repo and Reverse-Repo Market was 42.85% in the previous survey period, while it became 40.48% in this survey period. The expectation for the CBRT policy rate for the September Monetary Policy Committee meeting was 40.56% in this survey period.

EXCHANGE RATE

Participants' current year-end exchange rate (USD/TRY) expectation was 43.96 TL in the previous survey period, while it became 43.85 TL in this survey period. The 12-month ahead exchange rate expectation was 48.36 TL in the previous survey period, while it was 48.96 TL in this survey period.

Participants' growth expectation for gross domestic product (GDP) in 2025 was 2.9 percent in the previous survey period, while it was recorded as 3.2 percent in this survey period. The GDP growth expectation for 2026 was recorded as 3.7 percent in this survey period, just as it was in the previous one.