It had announced 5,700 dollars: US banking giant cuts gold forecast
Morgan Stanley has lowered its 2026 target for gold. Despite the selling pressure in recent weeks, it noted that upside potential remains.
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US-based investment bank Morgan Stanley has updated its 2026 outlook for gold prices downward. The bank lowered its target for gold per ounce for the second half of the year from 5,700 dollars to 5,200 dollars.
SHARP SELL-OFFS HAD AN IMPACT
The strong wave of selling experienced over the last six weeks emerged as the primary reason for the revision. During this period, gold prices lost approximately 8 percent in value, falling to the 4,800 dollar level.
According to DÜNYA, despite the drop in the target, the bank stated that current levels still hold upside potential.
SUPPORTIVE FACTORS PERSIST
According to the bank's assessment, the continued demand from central banks, concerns over the depreciation of global currencies, and rising geopolitical risks remain among the main factors supporting gold prices.
THREE FACTORS STOOD OUT
Three main factors were decisive in the pullback in gold:
- A slowdown in gold purchases by central banks
- Strong capital outflows from ETFs
- Increased selling pressure following the breaking of technical levels
STOCK MARKETS ROSE, RISK APPETITE INCREASED
Despite the weak trend in gold, the rise in global equity markets continued. In the US, the S&P 500 surpassed pre-war levels and saw new highs. This picture indicated that investors are turning to riskier assets instead of safe havens in the short term.
CRITICAL DATA FLOW EXPECTED
Analysts state that macroeconomic data coming from the US will be decisive for the direction of gold. In particular, inflation and employment data, as well as the Federal Reserve's interest rate policy, will be closely monitored.
The bank emphasized that for gold to enter a strong upward trend again, the interest rate cut process must begin and volatility in the bond markets must decrease.