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January 2027 scenarios for retiree raises: Calculations for the lowest pension approach the 26 thousand TL threshold

Inflation in the second half of the year will be the determining factor for the January raise for SSK and Bağ-Kur retirees. A 3.65 percent increase has been finalized for the first two months.

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The calendar is locked on inflation data for the raise rate that millions of SSK and Bağ-Kur retirees will receive in January 2027. The 6-month inflation rate occurring in the second half of the year will be the determining factor for retiree pensions.

With the data for July and August, a 3.65 percent portion of the retirees' raise calculation has been finalized. The third data point in the 6-month inflation calculation will become clear with the September CPI data to be announced by TÜİK on October 5.

The January increase in retiree pensions will be determined according to inflation data from the second half of the year.

INFLATION FORECASTS CHANGE THE RAISE CALCULATION

Year-end inflation expectations present different scenarios in the calculations regarding the January raise. While the year-end inflation for 2026 is projected at 28.4 percent in the Medium-Term Program, the Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey's estimate stands at the 28 percent level.

While the year-end inflation expectation in the CBRT's Survey of Market Participants rose to 29.61 percent, the Financial Institutions Association's estimate was updated to 30.39 percent. These expectations indicate that the 6-month inflation rate could form in the range of 8.70 percent to 10.73 percent.

With the July and August data, 3.65 percent of the raise calculation has been finalized.

POSSIBLE FIGURES FOR THE LOWEST RETIREE PENSION

The levels that the lowest retiree pension, which is currently 23 thousand 552 TL, could reach according to estimates are calculated as follows:

Calculations are made under the assumption that the current lowest retiree pension is increased by the relevant rates.
Scenario 6-month inflation calculation Lowest pension estimate
CBRT estimate 8.70 percent 25 thousand 601 TL
MTP forecast 9.04 percent 25 thousand 681 TL
Market participants expectation 10.06 percent 25 thousand 921 TL
FIA estimate 10.73 percent 26 thousand 79 TL
Different year-end inflation forecasts also change the calculations regarding the raise rate that will occur in January.

The range also widens in calculations made for different salary levels. It is calculated that the pension of a retiree receiving 30 thousand TL could range between 32 thousand 610 TL and 33 thousand 219 TL; the pension of one receiving 35 thousand TL could range between 38 thousand 45 TL and 38 thousand 756 TL; and the pension of one receiving 45 thousand TL could range between 48 thousand 915 TL and 49 thousand 828 TL.

The exact raise rate will be determined after all inflation data for the second half of the year is announced.

For the exact rate, the completion of the September, October, November, and December inflation data will be awaited. The increase to be applied in January will be finalized after the total inflation occurring in the second half of 2026 becomes clear.