January raise calculations begin for civil servants and civil servant retirees: Two different rates on the table

Following the Turkish Statistical Institute's announcement of July inflation at 1.78 percent, the first calculations regarding the salary increase that civil servants and civil servant retirees will receive in the January 2027 period have come to the agenda.

The salary raise for civil servants and civil servant retirees is determined by the inflation difference that occurs in addition to the collective bargaining agreement increase. Since the six-month inflation covering the July-December period has not yet been completed, the final rate will be finalized after the data for the remaining months of the year are announced.

Two separate expectations stand out in the current calculations. In the Central Bank's July Market Participants Survey, the year-end inflation expectation for 2026 was placed at 29.21 percent. According to this forecast, inflation is expected to reach 9.72 percent in the second half of the year.

In this scenario, it is calculated that the inflation difference for civil servants and civil servant retirees will be 2.54 percent, and with the 5 percent collective bargaining raise, the total increase will reach 7.67 percent.

The expectation of sector representatives participating in the Financial Institutions Association's research is that year-end inflation will be 30.32 percent. If this forecast materializes, inflation in the second half of 2026 will rise to 10.67 percent.

In this table, while the inflation difference that civil servants and civil servant retirees will receive is calculated as 3.43 percent, it is stated that with the addition of the collective bargaining raise, the total salary increase in January could reach the 8.60 percent level.

The exact raise rate will become clear with the completion of the six-month inflation for the July-December period. For this reason, the announced rates currently carry the nature of estimates based on market expectations.