June inflation expectations announced: Annual forecasts are falling
The results of a survey in which economists expect inflation to decline on both a monthly and annual basis in June have been shared. While year-end inflation forecasts have been revised downward, a slight increase was observed in the projections for 2027.
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The June 2026 inflation and foreign exchange expectation survey, prepared based on the views of 30 banks and brokerage firms, has been concluded. The majority of participants anticipate that the rate of increase in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) will slow down in June.
According to the median CPI forecast for June, monthly inflation is estimated to be 0.98 percent, and annual inflation is estimated to be at the 32.10 percent level. Looking at the average expectations, the monthly increase was recorded at 1.02 percent, and the annual increase at 32.16 percent.
June inflation expectations ranged between 0.74 percent and 1.77 percent, while on an annual basis, they formed a band between 31.78 percent and 33.03 percent. The CPI increase announced last month was 1.71 percent, while the markets had estimated an increase of 1.60 percent.
On the core inflation side (CPI C Index), according to the forecasts of 8 economists, a monthly increase of 1.58 percent and an annual increase of 30 percent are projected for June. The Turkish Statistical Institute (TÜİK) will announce the inflation data for June on Friday, July 3, at 10:00.
REVISION IN YEAR-END FORECASTS
A noticeable downward revision is drawing attention in the expectations for the end of the current year. According to the average of 22 economists participating in the survey, the year-end CPI rate was estimated at 29 percent. The forecasts range between 23 percent and 30 percent. In the results of the same survey announced the previous month, the year-end forecast was 29.58 percent, and the December band was between 26 percent and 31 percent.
In the projections made for the end of 2027, the median forecast of 8 economists rose from 22 percent to 22.25 percent. However, despite this increase, the lowering of the forecast range indicates a more optimistic atmosphere in the distribution of expectations. The economists' CPI increase forecast for 12 months ahead was determined as 24.85 percent.
The CPI C Index is expected to reach 28.40 percent by the end of 2026 and 24 percent by the end of 2027. In the previous survey, these expectations were at the 28 percent and 22 percent levels, respectively.
FOREIGN EXCHANGE RATE EXPECTATIONS REMAINED STABLE
Within the scope of the survey, 14 analysts did not foresee a significant change in the dollar/TL exchange rate at the end of 2026. The median forecast was 51.80 TL. The highest value in the year-end projections was 52.40 TL, and the lowest was 50 TL. In the survey conducted the previous month, the upper limit of this band was at 54.40 TL.
While the prominent dollar/TL forecast for one year ahead was calculated as 55.60 TL, the exchange rate in question is expected to reach 60.85 TL by the end of 2027. In the previous survey period, this expectation was at the 61 TL level.
These forecasts regarding inflation and exchange rates seem likely to closely influence the steps that the economic administration and the markets will take in the coming months.
Source: https://www.matriksdata.com/ (Matriks News)