Latest survey released: What is the January inflation expectation?
According to the January Economic Outlook Index published by the Financial Institutions Association (FKB), economists' inflation expectation for January is 2.77 percent. While a significant increase was observed in inflation expectations in December, a decrease was recorded in the year-end inflation forecasts for 2025 and 2026.
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The January bulletin of the 'Financial Institutions Association Economic Outlook Index' (FKB-EGE) has been published by the Financial Institutions Association (FKB). Data from the FKB's December index and January expectation survey showed that the tight monetary policy implemented in the medium and long term continues to be reflected in inflation expectations.
INFLATION EXPECTATION INCREASED BY 0.51 PERCENT
According to the results of the FKB Economic Outlook Expectation Survey for January, the inflation expectation for January increased by 0.51 percent compared to the previous month, rising to 2.77 percent. However, a clear decrease was observed in the year-end inflation expectations for 2025 and 2026.
HIGHEST CHANGE IN DECEMBER
According to the report in Dünya newspaper, when looking at the trend of change, an upward trend was observed in the last 6 months of 2024, with the exception of August. In December 2024, the index value reached 100.99, an increase of 0.81 points compared to the previous month, surpassing both the value in November, when it saw its highest value of 2024, and the 2024 average of 99.33.
FINANCIAL LEASING INDEX ROSE BY 0.1
On the other hand, the Factoring Index, one of the sub-components of the index, increased by 1.56 points in December 2024 to reach 102.27. The other sub-components of the index, the Financial Leasing Index, increased by 0.1 points to 102.75, and the Financing Index increased by 0.75 points to 97.94.
According to the results of the FKB Economic Outlook Survey for January, participants' GDP growth rate expectations were 3.14 percent for the end of 2025 and 3.53 percent for the end of 2026. When compared to the Medium-Term Program (OVP) forecasts of 4 percent and 4.5 percent, respectively, and the IMF forecasts of 2.7 percent and 3.2 percent, respectively, for the same years, the participants' GDP growth rate expectations were below the OVP forecast and above the IMF forecast for both the end of 2025 and the end of 2026.