Minimum wage forecast from the financial giant that predicted the January raise! It concerns millions of employees...

As the effects of high inflation continue in Turkey, the US-based financial institution Morgan Stanley expects a 20 to 25 percent raise to the minimum wage at the beginning of 2026. The bank, which was successful in its predictions last year, anticipates a similar increase this year. If these estimates prove correct, the minimum wage will rise to 26,524 liras with a 20 percent raise, and to 27,630 liras with a 25 percent raise.

ECONOMIC DIFFICULTIES CONTINUE

If the Central Bank's inflation targets are not met, the living standards of minimum wage earners will continue to remain below the hunger threshold. According to Türk-İş data, the hunger threshold, which represents the food expenditure of a family of four, was calculated at 27,111 liras in August. Even in the 20 percent raise scenario, the minimum wage remains below this threshold. While the hunger threshold is expected to rise to 30,000 liras in February 2026, the poverty threshold is estimated to reach 100,000 liras.

MINIMUM WAGE SITUATION IN EUROPE

Turkey ranks fourth from the bottom in the minimum wage rankings in Europe. The purchasing power of the minimum wage, which was 601 Euros in January, has now fallen to 456 Euros. This situation places Turkey as the country with the lowest minimum wage in Europe after war-torn Ukraine, Moldova, and Albania. In Euro terms, while the Turkish minimum wage earner has become 24.1 percent poorer, their counterpart in Ukraine has become 9.9 percent poorer, and in Romania, 2.1 percent poorer.