Mixed trend continues in global markets

While developments in the Israel-Palestine conflict continue to be closely monitored worldwide, eyes in the markets have turned to the monetary policy decisions the Fed will announce tomorrow.

While it is considered a certainty in money market pricing that the Fed will keep its policy rate unchanged tomorrow, signals to be taken from the policy statement and the remarks to be made by Fed Chair Jerome Powell are expected to be influential on asset prices.

Analysts noted that the latest macroeconomic data released in the US indicate that economic activity in the country remains strong, stating that messages regarding how much this situation concerns the Fed are important.

Emphasizing that changes in money market pricing could occur with the data in the employment report to be released on Friday, analysts stated that if the economy does not cool down as the Fed desires, expectations for another interest rate hike at the December or January meeting remain in place.

The US Department of the Treasury lowered its borrowing estimate for the fourth quarter of this year from 852 billion dollars to 776 billion dollars.

The ounce price of gold fell by 0.4 percent yesterday to 1,996 dollars, and the barrel price of Brent crude oil dropped by 2.5 percent to 86.5 dollars.

On the New York Stock Exchange, the Dow Jones index rose by 1.58 percent, the S&P 500 index by 1.20 percent, and the Nasdaq index by 1.16 percent. Index futures in the US started the new day with a decline.

While a buying-weighted trend stood out in European stock markets yesterday, data released in Germany was influential in this trend.

Annual inflation in Germany fell to 3.8 percent in October, the lowest level since August 2021, while the country's economy performed better than expected despite contracting by 0.8 percent on an annual basis in the third quarter.

While these data indicate that the steps taken within the scope of the fight against inflation in the region are slowly bearing fruit, the fact that economic activity is better than anticipated contributed to the easing of recession concerns, albeit to a limited extent.

Today, eyes are turned to growth and inflation data for the Eurozone, while the decline in oil prices is also helping risk appetite remain strong in the region.

The DAX 40 index in Germany rose by 0.20 percent, the CAC 40 index in France by 0.44 percent, the FTSE 100 index in the UK by 0.50 percent, and the MIB 30 index in Italy by 0.19 percent. Index futures in Europe started the new day with a decline.

Asian stock markets started the day with a mixed trend, while the Bank of Japan's (BoJ) monetary policy decisions and data released in China caused volatility in asset prices to increase.

In its decision today, the BoJ removed the yield curve target, which was at plus-minus 0.5 percent, from its policy statement, and announced that it would henceforth take the 1 percent level, which it had previously set as a ceiling price, as a reference point.

While the Bank kept its policy rate unchanged at minus 0.1 percent, analysts stated that with the decision taken, the BoJ has taken a step back from its commitment to unlimited bond purchases at the 1 percent level, and that question marks regarding where Japan's 10-year bond yields will be determined have increased.

With this move, the dollar/yen parity rose by 0.7 percent to the 150.2 level, while Japan's 10-year bond yield tested its highest level in the last 10 years at 0.957 percent.

According to data released in China today, the manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) fell to 49.5, and the services sector PMI fell to the 50.6 level.

Near the close, the Nikkei 225 index in Japan rose by 0.2 percent, while the Hang Seng index in Hong Kong fell by 1.7 percent, the Kospi index in South Korea by 1.4 percent, and the Shanghai composite index in China by 0.2 percent.

Domestically, the BIST 100 index on Borsa Istanbul, which followed a buying-weighted trend yesterday, albeit limited, completed the day with a 0.08 percent increase at 7,712.85 points.

The dollar/TL is trading at the 28.2750 level at the opening of the interbank market today, after completing the day yesterday at 28.2590 with a 0.3 percent increase.

Analysts stated that today, the foreign trade balance domestically, and growth and inflation in the Eurozone, as well as housing price index and consumer confidence index data in the US, along with the news flow regarding the Israel-Palestine conflict, will be monitored abroad, noting that from a technical perspective, the 7,830 and 8,000 levels are resistance, and 7,600 and 7,400 points are support positions for the BIST 100 index.