New forecast for gold

In future-oriented assessments of the gold markets, it is believed that current global risks will significantly push prices upward. Experts, including analysts Soni Kumari and Daniel Hynes, pointed out that the next 12 months hold three main scenarios that will be decisive for gold.

In the first possibility, it is anticipated that inflation will rise due to increasing oil prices and that the United States Federal Reserve (Fed) will not cut interest rates until at least September. It was stated that this development would suppress gold in the short term.

According to another scenario, the deepening of the energy crisis will slow down economic growth, industrial production will decrease, and consumer spending will stagnate. As a final option, the slowdown in growth will lead central banks toward a looser monetary policy. In this case, it is stated that gold prices will find support again.

In the short term, while the level of approximately 4,500 dollars per ounce is estimated to be an important support point for gold, it was assessed that possible pullbacks in prices offer investors opportunities to take new positions.

However, in the latest forecast made by the institution, the year-end gold price projection was lowered from 5,800 dollars to 5,600 dollars. It was noted that the 6,000 dollars per ounce level would be exceeded by mid-2027; previous assessments had predicted that this target would be reached by the beginning of 2027.

The report stated, "More generally, deteriorating fiscal positions, ongoing US dollar diversification, and geopolitical uncertainty will continue to strengthen gold's role as insurance. Furthermore, given the Middle East conflict, central banks will continue to strategically increase their gold reserves."