New forecast for gold and the stock market
The stock market, the most profitable investment vehicle of the recent period, has turned toward losses due to the impact of the war that began in the Middle East. After a sharp decline last Wednesday, the stock market recovered on Thursday following the interest rate hike by the Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey. The upward trend in the stock market on Friday was also notable.
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The gold market has tested new record levels due to safe-haven demand. While ounce gold surpassed 2,000 dollars, gram gold held above 1,800 liras, setting a new record. So, what is the reason for the sharp fluctuations in the stock market? Why did the stock market, which hit a low last week, rise after the interest rate decision? What is the new forecast for gold prices?
‘GOLD IS IN LINE WITH THE UPTREND’
Economist Hikmet Baydar explained the curious questions on the subject to Uzmanpara. Baydar made the following statements in his speech:
The most important reason behind the rise in ounce gold is the developments regarding Israel's attack on Palestine. Turkey's statements on this, Russia's hypersonic missile announcements, China sending its ships to the region, and rhetoric about a global third world war are triggering a shift from the monetary system to gold.
NEW FORECAST FOR GOLD!
Since the movement in gold also technically gives upward signals, it is a movement that is extremely consistent with an uptrend. I expect the result of this movement to continue up to 2,037 dollars in the short term. As developments in the Middle East turn negative, the shift toward gold will increase.
Will the rise in gram gold continue?
Here is what I will say for gram gold: As interest rates rise in Turkey, it becomes a bit more difficult for other instruments to rise. However, since the price of ounce gold is rising due to developments regarding Israel's attack on Palestine in international markets, it is extremely natural for gram gold to rise in connection with ounce gold.
There are two factors behind the movement in gram gold; one is the dollar/TL exchange rate. There is currently no downward signal there. The other indicator is ounce gold. The indicators for ounce gold are also pointing upward. As tensions rise in the Middle East, we expect gram gold to rise in parallel with ounce gold.
Looking at domestic markets, a cautious trend may be entered following President Erdoğan's statements regarding Israel. This could push gold prices a little higher.
Should gold be bought at this level?
Since technical data gives upward signals, it is logical according to technical analysis. The international conjuncture has also made this logical. In such an environment, gold positions in the market will increase.
It recovered after the interest rate decision that caused a sharp drop on Wednesday! What is the reason for the sharp movement in the stock market?
The decline in the stock market was related to the Middle East. It was related to the increase in war tension in the region. However, the attempts to hold on last Thursday and Friday should not be perceived as a signal of an upward reversal.
Trading volumes are almost half compared to high trading volumes. It is not logical to interpret this as a trend reversal; technical indicators have not yet turned upward. One must be careful.
‘THE DOWNWARD TREND CONTINUES’
A very sharp drop came on Wednesday. On Thursday, an attempt was made to compensate for the decline to some extent. Currently, the downward trend continues. We have not yet seen the negative effects of interest rates on the stock market. The Middle East effect is seen more.
In the coming period, we will begin to see the effects of rising interest rates on growth. We will see this through balance sheets and sales figures. That is when we will be able to see the effect of interest rates on the stock market.
Did investors shift to gold? When will the stock market rise?
It is difficult to say that stock market investors have shifted to gold. Gold already has its own investor base. We see that those who are hesitant about the system in the stock market are buying gold. I can say that the trading volumes in profit realizations in the stock market are not at a sufficient level. The expectation that foreign investors will come to the stock market and the stock market will rise continues. These expectations were broken with the developments in the Middle East. Currently, investors are acting cautiously.
For the first time, money is not choosing the dollar as a safe haven. Dollar-denominated m