New salary scenario from the Central Bank
The Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey's (TCMB) upward revision of expectations in its second Inflation Report of the year has changed the salary calculations for millions of civil servants and retirees. While the July and year-end raise rates have become clearer based on the new projections, new figures have also begun to be mentioned for the lowest pension.
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The presentation of the second Inflation Report of the year, attended by the Governor of the Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey (TCMB) Fatih Karahan and his deputies, was on the radar of millions of employees and retirees, as well as the markets. The bank's upward revision of its year-end inflation forecast has caused a reshuffling of the cards in salary increase calculations. While the 4-month data announced by the Turkish Statistical Institute (TÜİK) is already in hand, the Central Bank's new route has provided the keys to the welfare increases in July and December.
INFLATION EXPECTATION ROSE TO 26 PERCENT
The TCMB announced that it has updated Turkey's year-end inflation expectation to 26 percent. The report also raised the 2026 interim inflation target to 24 percent. This upward revision directly affected the salary tables of civil servants, civil servant retirees, and SSK and Bağ-Kur retirees who will receive an inflation adjustment.
According to the January-April period data announced by TÜİK, a 4-month finalized raise rate of 14.64 percent is already in the pockets of SSK and Bağ-Kur retirees. For the Central Bank's 26 percent year-end forecast to hold, monthly inflation needs to hover at an average of 1.19 percent during the May-December period.
WHO WILL GET HOW MUCH OF A RAISE IN JULY?
If this new path predicted by the Central Bank is realized, the rates reflected in salaries in July will also differ. According to the new calculations, while SSK and Bağ-Kur retirees will receive a 17.4 percent raise in July, the July raise for civil servants and civil servant retirees, including collective bargaining and inflation adjustment, will rise to 13.2 percent.
YEAR-END SALARY TABLES HAVE ALSO CHANGED
The new scenario covers not only July but also the second half of the year. If inflation forecasts continue in this direction until the end of the year, an additional 7.6 percent raise could be applied to SSK and Bağ-Kur retirees for the July-December period, in addition to the increase in the first half. The new year raise for civil servants and civil servant retirees is calculated at 5.3 percent.
LOWEST PENSION EXCEEDS 23 THOUSAND TL
The TCMB's new projections also closely concern retirees receiving the base pension. According to the new raise rate formula reflected in the corridors, the lowest pension, which is currently applied as 20 thousand TL, is expected to rise to 23 thousand 360 TL with the new wave of increases. These figures are expected to become clear in the coming period based on the course of inflation in the second half of the year.