Oil demand growth in 2025 expected to be at its lowest level in 14 years

The International Energy Agency (IEA) estimates that the growth in oil demand for 2025 will be at its lowest level since 2009. According to the IEA's latest report, global oil demand is expected to increase by 700 thousand barrels per day this year, reaching 103 million 682 thousand barrels. This figure remains below previous forecasts.

In the second quarter of the year, oil deliveries falling short of expectations led to a revision of demand growth. During this period, global oil demand increased by only 550 thousand barrels compared to the same period last year. In the first quarter, oil consumption was at high levels, particularly in OECD countries, due to cold weather conditions. However, in recent months, there has been a noticeable slowdown in demand on a global scale, especially in developing countries.

In June, global oil supply increased by approximately 950 thousand barrels per day, reaching 105 million 620 thousand barrels, with contributions from Saudi Arabia and other OPEC+ countries. OPEC's crude oil production increased by 420 thousand barrels per day during this period. In non-OPEC countries, production rose by 530 thousand barrels per day to 71 million 730 thousand barrels.

During this period, when the OPEC+ group played a decisive role in production increases, Saudi Arabia's crude oil production rose by 700 thousand barrels per day. However, production declines in Iran and Venezuela partially offset the total increase. In non-OPEC+ countries, production growth in Canada compensated for losses in other regions.

The IEA projects that oil demand will increase by 720 thousand barrels per day in 2026, reaching 104 million 404 thousand barrels. This forecast is based on the expected easing of global economic policies.