Optimistic mood in global markets
Pricing in the swap market, which suggests that the probability of a US interest rate hike in December is almost zero and that no further hikes will be made next year, has supported the positive mood in the markets.
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The S&P 500 index closed with a 0.10 percent gain on Wednesday, marking its first 8-day winning streak since November 2021. The technology index Nasdaq 100 also rose by a similar margin, extending its uninterrupted climb to the 9th day. US index futures are slightly lower in the new trading session.
The upward closes in Wall Street indices also reflected positively on Asia. Japan's Nikkei 225 is in the green; China's CSI 300 managed to remain in positive territory despite weak CPI data. Hong Kong's Hang Seng, however, diverged negatively.
US bonds are gaining value, reflecting expectations that interest rates may have reached their peak. The yield on the 10-year US Treasury note fell by 7 basis points on Wednesday, closing below 4.5 percent. This decline occurred despite the 40 billion dollar bond auction held on Wednesday resulting in a higher-than-expected yield of 4.519 percent. The 30-year US Treasury yield fell to its lowest level in more than a month.
Pricing by actors in the swap market, which suggests that the probability of a US interest rate hike in December is almost zero and that no further hikes will be made next year, has supported the positive mood in the markets. On the commodities side, Brent crude is trading around 80 dollars per barrel following its decline on Wednesday, while US crude oil rose to approximately 76 dollars, near its three-month low.