Record growth expected in global trade by 2025

The latest report prepared by the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD) has revealed that 2025 will witness new records in global trade. According to the report, despite geopolitical uncertainties, the increase in trade volume continued in the second half of this year. Global trade is expected to maintain its upward trend until the end of the year.

Report data shows that global trade grew by 2.5 percent in the third quarter of 2025, and it is projected that the total trade volume will exceed 35 trillion dollars for the year as a whole, representing a 7 percent increase compared to the previous year. Thus, a new record will be set.

UNCTAD stated that the rise in trade values over two quarters was driven by increases in the prices of goods. However, prices are expected to decline in the coming period. The institution's statement noted, "Consequently, the increase in global trade at the end of 2025 is driven more by volume growth than by price increases. This indicates that demand remains stable despite falling inflation. While the manufacturing sector, particularly the electronics sector, continues to be the main engine of growth in global trade, the energy and automotive sectors have lagged behind."

Furthermore, the report stated that the trade deficit remains high and that trade flows are being reshaped due to geopolitical developments. It was specifically pointed out that commercial relations with friendly and neighboring countries are strengthening.

Despite the positive expectations for global trade, UNCTAD also pointed to existing challenges. A slowing global economy, rising debt, high trade costs, and an environment of constant uncertainty could negatively affect the growth rate of global trade in the coming year.