Shock drop in gold prices: Nearing two-month low

Gold prices in global markets began the new week under pressure. As of 06:00 TSI on the morning of October 6, 2026, gold per ounce was trading at $4,131, while it tested $4,103 during the day, nearing its lowest level in the last two months.

A limited pullback was also observed in gram gold. In the spot market, gram gold started the day at 6,532 TL. The fact that last week's close occurred at the 6,542 TL level indicated that prices in the domestic market were being tracked within a narrow band but under downward pressure.

CRITICAL THRESHOLD IN THE MARKET

The $4,100 level for gold per ounce is being monitored by market experts as critical support. It is stated that if this level is broken downward, selling pressure could increase. In upward attempts, the $4,200-$4,230 band stands out as a resistance zone.

Gold had finished last week around $4,140. Although pricing close to this level was seen in the first trades of the new week, the intraday dip attempt indicated that investors are maintaining a “wait-and-see” attitude.

The direction of gram gold in the domestic market is influenced by both the movement in gold per ounce and developments in the exchange rate. For this reason, the course of bond yields and the dollar index in global markets is also closely watched in terms of gold pricing domestically.

BOND, DOLLAR, AND FED IMPACT

One of the main pressure factors on gold has been the high course of global bond yields. The yield on the US 10-year Treasury bond rose to 5.34%, reaching its highest level since 2002. The 30-year bond yield also saw its peak since May 2002 at 5.66%.

Rising public debt, fiscal risks, and inflation concerns were effective in the rise in bond yields. The fact that yields remain high increases the alternative cost for gold, which does not provide interest income, creating pressure on the yellow metal.

The fact that the dollar index exceeded 102.15 to reach its highest levels in the last 18 months was another factor limiting gold prices. While the euro lost value due to fiscal concerns in France and political uncertainty in Europe, the euro/dollar parity fell to a 17-month low.

Data released in the US is reshaping expectations regarding the Fed's interest rate path. While the ISM services sector PMI data was announced as 54.9, the index showing prices paid in the services sector rose from 72.6 to 74.0 in September. This level was recorded as the highest value since July 2022.

On the other hand, weak signals from the employment front limited interest rate hike expectations. The fact that non-farm payrolls in the US increased by 29 thousand people in September and the unemployment rate rose from 4.1% to 4.2% strengthened the expectation that the Fed could keep interest rates stable at its October meeting. In the markets, the probability that interest rates will not change at the October 28 meeting is priced at 78%.

Another factor currently limiting the decline in gold was the partial retreat in oil prices. With signs that supply from the Middle East could increase, the barrel price of Brent oil pulled back to the $100 threshold. Lower energy costs and the weakening in interest rate hike expectations are considered among the factors preventing a sharper pullback in gold.