S&P 500 index continues to show a fragile outlook in the first week of the month

The S&P 500 index, which has an average return of -1% in Decembers over the last 5 years, continues to show a fragile outlook in the first week of the month. The outlook in other leading markets is not much different. Domestically, we have been seeing a clear consolidation in the 8000-8200 band for some time in Borsa Istanbul, where the 5-year average for December is +6%. The most important reason for the global stagnation can be considered the strong buying of expectations in November. So much so that even though interest rate cut forecasts remain valid, this situation has ceased to be sufficient as a driving force for asset prices. The fact that the Fed does not appear willing to abandon its hawkish monetary policy rhetoric in the very short term also makes things difficult for the markets. At this point, for the markets to emerge from the stagnation, macroeconomic data in particular needs to paint a picture that further strengthens the possibility of an interest rate cut without pointing to a significant risk regarding growth. Therefore, the US employment figures to be announced on Friday remain the most important topic that could guide the markets this week. Before this data, we will be following the ADP private sector employment figures today.

TRY: Although the USD/TRY maintains its slight upward trend, we see that a generally more optimistic trend has been displayed, especially following the upward revision made by S&P to Turkey's credit rating and outlook. In this context, it is noteworthy that the exchange rate has remained predominantly horizontal over the last week. We would also like to underline that Moody's is expected to make an update next week. In the current period, where bond yields in the US are moving predominantly downwards, the weakening of the upward trend in inflation domestically also stands out as a supportive factor for the TRY. Furthermore, the CBRT, which exceeded market expectations by raising the policy rate above 40% at its last meeting, is expected to continue its hikes, albeit at a slower pace. In summary, although the room for upward movement remains valid, the factors we listed above contribute to the exchange rate painting a more balanced picture in the short term compared to previous weeks.

Borsa Istanbul: Although the BIST-100 index continues its upward attempts, it is difficult to say that the gains are of a nature to change the big picture, at least for now. We see that the consolidation in the 8000-8200 band, which we frequently emphasize, continues. Breaking the 8100-point level, which is the midpoint of this band, could be a signal that a move towards the upper band is possible in the short term. However, for now, efforts in this direction have not yielded a clear result. Therefore, if we need to make a very short-term assessment, we think that being below or above 8100 could be a guide for intraday trading decisions.

BIST-30 NEAREST TERM VIOP CONTRACT

In BIST-30 contracts, which closed the day at 8893.25 points, 8831, 8760, 8698, and 8627 can be monitored as support. 8956, 9027, 9089, and 9161 constitute the resistance points.

USD/TRY NEAREST TERM VIOP CONTRACT

In USD/TRY futures contracts, which closed the day at 29.4809, 29.2745, 29.0385, 28.8325, and 28.5965 can be monitored as support. 29.6875, 29.923, 30.1295, and 30.3655 constitute the resistance points.