Striking forecasts from global banks on gold prices: Expectation of a rise draws attention

The decline experienced in March 2026, which exceeded 10 percent, was recorded as the sharpest monthly loss seen in the gold market since June 2013. As of April 5, 2026, gold per ounce is trading at 4,676 dollars. Analysts point out that the military tension between the US and Iran and the statements of the then-US President Donald Trump are creating pressure on gold.

GOLDMAN SACHS’ YEAR-END EXPECTATION REMAINS UNCHANGED

While the fluctuation in the gold market is being closely followed by investors, leading banks around the world have updated their forecasts regarding 2026 scenarios. Goldman Sachs Economists Daan Struyven and Lina Thomas announced in an analysis they published at the end of January that the previously set year-end target of 4,900 dollars for gold per ounce has been raised to 5,400 dollars. The bank continues to maintain its forecast despite the sharp decline in March.

Struyven and Thomas stated, “The risks to the upward forecast are significantly to the upside due to the possibility that private sector investors may further diversify their portfolios due to the continued global policy uncertainty.”

HIGH GOLD DEMAND FROM DEVELOPING COUNTRIES

The interest of central banks in gold is also expected to continue increasing in 2026. Goldman Sachs predicts that emerging market central banks will purchase an average of 60 tons of gold per month this year. Among the reasons for this trend, the desire of countries to move their reserves away from the US dollar stands out. According to the data, the Central Bank of China made gold purchases for 15 consecutive months until January 2026.

According to the assessments of the World Gold Council, it is predicted that the total purchases of central banks in developing countries could reach 850 tons in 2026. With the information shared by USAGOLD, it is thought that this level will provide stable support to gold prices.

HOW WILL THE FED’S INTEREST RATE POLICY AFFECT GOLD PRICES?

Goldman analysts state that the US Federal Reserve (Fed) could implement an additional half-point interest rate cut during 2026 and that this policy will provide approximately 120 dollars of support to the price of gold per ounce.

OTHER BANKS’ TARGET PRICES HAVE RISEN

Other giant institutions prominent in the banking sector are also ambitious in their forecasts for a rise in gold. While UBS set a target of 6,200 dollars for gold per ounce in the first three quarters of 2026, it stated that in an optimistic scenario, the price could reach 7,200 dollars in June. Deutsche Bank reiterated its 6,000-dollar forecast for gold per ounce, while JPMorgan announced its forecast for the new year as 6,300 dollars. Wells Fargo, which is frequently mentioned in market analyses, predicts a price in the range of 6,100 to 6,300 dollars for gold per ounce in 2026.

(The information contained in this news is not investment advice.)