The first outlook for retiree and civil servant raises: Year-end inflation will be the deciding factor

Following the July inflation figures, eyes have turned to the January 2027 raise. According to experts, year-end inflation expectations will be the deciding factor in salary increases.

12punto 06 August 2026

With the announcement of the July 2026 inflation data, the first indicators regarding the increases to be made to retiree and civil servant salaries in January 2027 have begun to take shape. According to TUIK data, annual inflation stood at 31.90 percent.

Social Security Expert Özgür Erdursun stated in his assessment for Dünya Gazetesi that year-end inflation expectations are critical in terms of salary increases. According to information provided by Erdursun, the Central Bank's official forecast is 26 percent, the IMF's projection is 28.6 percent, and the year-end expectation in the Central Bank's Survey of Market Participants is at the 29.14 percent level.

Inflation data for the second half of the year will be monitored for the January 2027 raise.

The inflation that will occur in the second 6-month period of the year will directly affect the raise rates for SSK and Bağ-Kur retirees. For civil servants and retired civil servants, the calculation of an inflation adjustment in addition to the collective bargaining agreement increase will come to the agenda.

EMPHASIS ON PURCHASING POWER IN THE LOWEST RETIREE PENSION

In the July 2026 period, the lowest retiree pension had been increased to 23 thousand 552 TL. In this context, the resulting difference payments are expected to be deposited into accounts on Friday, August 7.

Erdursun pointed out that even before the payment was made, there was a loss in the purchasing power of the pension in question. According to the assessment, the real value of the 23 thousand 552 TL pension as of the beginning of August has declined to 23 thousand 140.11 TL according to TUIK data, 23 thousand 076.62 TL according to ITO data, and 22 thousand 850.49 TL according to ENAG data.

Inflation expectations will form the framework for the January 2027 increase in retiree and civil servant salaries.

Erdursun emphasized that a decline in inflation does not mean that prices have fallen, but only that the rate of price increases has slowed. For this reason, it was stated that salary increases carry the risk of eroding from the first days of the year, especially in terms of the purchasing power of fixed-income groups.

The inflation data to be announced in the coming months will be the deciding factor for the raise rates that will be finalized in January 2027. If year-end inflation occurs in the 28.6 percent to 29.14 percent band, the inflation adjustment and increase rates that retirees and civil servants will receive will largely be clarified according to this picture.