Two possibilities for the January raise! Calculations for civil servant and retiree salaries have changed
Inflation forecasts from the CBRT and market surveys have updated the January 2027 raise calculations; two rates are on the agenda for retiree and civil servant salaries.
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The Central Bank's upward revision of its year-end inflation forecast and rising expectations in the Market Participants Survey have brought the calculations for the January 2027 raises for civil servants and retirees back to the agenda.
According to regulations, salary increases are determined twice a year, taking into account inflation data and collective bargaining agreement provisions. In this context, while the raise rate for SSK and Bağ-Kur retirees is shaped directly by 6-month inflation, an inflation difference is added to the collective bargaining raise for civil servants and civil servant retirees.
TWO DIFFERENT CALCULATIONS ON THE TABLE
The CBRT's increase of its year-end inflation forecast from 26 percent to 28 percent formed the basis of the first raise scenario. The announcement of the year-end inflation expectation as 29.43 percent in the Market Participants Survey brought the second calculation to the forefront.
| Scenario | SSK and Bağ-Kur retiree | Civil servant and civil servant retiree |
|---|---|---|
| 28 percent year-end inflation forecast | 8.7 percent raise | 6.67 percent raise |
| 29.43 percent market expectation | 9.1 percent raise | 7.86 percent raise |
For civil servants and civil servant retirees, a 5 percent collective bargaining raise is taken as the basis for calculations. In addition to this, it is stated that an inflation difference of 1.59 percent will occur in the first scenario and 2.72 percent in the second scenario.
If the 7.86 percent increase in the second scenario is applied, the lowest civil servant salary, which rose to 70 thousand 224 liras in the July period, will increase to 75 thousand 744 liras. It is calculated that the lowest civil servant retiree pension, which is currently 31 thousand 527 liras and 77 kuruş, will reach 34 thousand 5 liras.
For SSK and Bağ-Kur retirees, the base pension regulation is also being monitored. The lowest pension payment, which is currently 23 thousand 552 liras, is expected to rise to 25 thousand 886 liras if the 9.91 percent increase is reflected.
However, for the final increase regarding the base pension to come into effect, the regulation must be enacted following the parliamentary process. The exact raise rates will become clear once the inflation data for the second half of the year is finalized.