US bank's 2024 dollar/TRY forecast: They pointed to the second quarter!

In a report dated January 22 prepared by Wells Fargo economists Nick Bennenbroek, Brendan McKenna, and Anna Stein, it was stated that the dollar/TRY exchange rate would rise to the 31 level in the first quarter of 2024, and then decline to the 30.50 level in the second quarter of the year.

The bank also estimated that this momentum in the dollar/TRY rate would continue in the subsequent quarters.

FORECAST OF DECLINE IN THE THIRD QUARTER

According to the report prepared by the bank, the exchange rate is projected to pull back to the 30 level in the third quarter of the year and to the 29.50 level in the final quarter. The bank estimated that the exchange rate would be 29 in the first quarter of 2025 and 28.50 in the second quarter.

"THE DOLLAR WILL LOSE VALUE!"

In the bank's global analysis regarding the dollar, the forecast that the dollar will lose value in 2024 also drew attention.

The bank's analysis suggests that the US dollar will generally continue to lose value as 2024 progresses.

The following statements stood out in the bank's analysis related to the dollar:

"While we now expect the US to avoid a recession, we anticipate that US growth will slow as the year progresses and that the Fed will begin cutting interest rates starting in the second quarter of this year. Indeed, the economic slowdown in the US could occur at a time when some major foreign economies are beginning to recover, which could create a growth divergence that would put pressure on the dollar. In addition, a soft landing scenario in the US economy, combined with progress on inflation and lower US yields, could also support broader financial market sentiment and weigh on the 'safe haven' support for the US dollar. Overall, we expect the US dollar to depreciate moderately against G10 and emerging market currencies as the year progresses."