The US Federal Reserve will announce its interest rate decision today: What are the experts' expectations?

The trade and economic policies that US President Donald Trump announced he would implement last week have caused uncertainty in global markets. Investors are awaiting the monetary policy decisions to be taken by the US Federal Reserve (Fed) this evening.

Analysts stated that despite Fed officials highlighting in their recent forward guidance that the fight against inflation must continue for a long time, and despite Trump's inflationary policies, pricing for interest rate cuts in money markets has strengthened.

While the inflation-recession dilemma persists globally, concerns remain strong that the steps the US will take regarding trade could disrupt the fight against inflation in the country. In the shadow of these concerns, while the Fed's decisions today are at the center of investors' focus, it is considered a certainty that the bank will keep its policy rate unchanged.

While it is anticipated in money market pricing that the bank could make 3 interest rate cuts, the policy statement and the forward guidance of Fed Chair Jerome Powell are expected to provide clues regarding future monetary policy.

According to data released in the US yesterday, the amount of durable goods orders in the country decreased by 2.2 percent in December of last year. The S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller National Home Price Index in the country increased by 3.8 percent on an annual basis in November of last year, signaling an acceleration in the rise of housing prices.

Trump had demanded last week that the Fed cut interest rates. Trump's words had sparked debates about 'political interference in the Fed'

CONSUMER CONFIDENCE INDEX IN THE US DECLINED

The New York Fed Consumer Confidence Index in the US fell by 5.4 points monthly in January to 104.1, coming in below market expectations. On the other hand, news flow regarding the fact that the new US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent supports a universal tariff plan of 2.5 percent gradually every month and that customs duty rates could rise up to 20 percent is being followed closely.

Furthermore, while the recovery in the technology and semiconductor sectors continues in equity markets, shares of the US chip giant Nvidia, which fell 17 percent on Monday and saw its market value decrease by approximately 600 billion dollars, rose by approximately 9 percent yesterday. Shares of the chip company Broadcom also recorded an increase of approximately 2.6 percent.

Analysts noted that the financial results to be announced today by technology giants such as Meta, Microsoft, Tesla, and IBM could increase stock and sector-based volatility in the markets.

Before the interest rate decision to be announced by the Fed today, the US 10-year bond yield fell to the 4.52 percent level, while the dollar index started the day at the 107.8 level with a horizontal trend.

Stating that pricing in bonds indicates that inflation concern is still strong, analysts noted that the strong dollar also continues to fuel this concern.

While the ounce price of gold closed at 2,764 dollars with a 0.8 percent increase yesterday, it is currently trading at 2,762 dollars, 0.1 percent below the previous close.

While the barrel price of Brent oil followed a sales-weighted trend due to the effect of Trump's messages supporting oil production, it started the new day with a 0.4 percent decline at 76.3 dollars.

Fed Chair Jerome Powell stated in his press statement last week that he thinks they could 'work in harmony' with the Trump administration.

RECOVERY IN US STOCK MARKETS

With these developments, the S&P 500 index rose 0.92 percent, the Nasdaq index 2.03 percent, and the Dow Jones index 0.31 percent yesterday on the New York Stock Exchange. Index futures contracts in the US started the new day with a mixed trend.

Analysts said that despite the uncertainties stemming from Trump's policies, it is expected that the ECB will continue interest rate cuts this year with the forecast that the policies of the new US administration could negatively affect growth, especially in the Eurozone.

Stating that it is considered a certainty in money market pricing that the ECB will make a 25 basis point cut in policy rates at its meeting tomorrow, analysts noted that a gradual monetary easing could continue to suppress the increasing recession concerns in the region.

EUROPEAN STOCK MARKETS ARE MOVING VOLATILELY

While a mixed trend came to the fore in European stock markets yesterday, the monetary policy decisions of the European Central Bank (ECB) tomorrow continue to remain the focus of investors.

Yesterday, while the DAX 40 index in Germany gained 0.70 percent and the FTSE 100 index in the UK gained 0.35 percent, the CAC 40 index in France lost 0.12 percent and the FTSE MIB 30 index in Italy lost 0.12 percent. Index futures contracts in Europe also started the new day with a mixed trend.

On the Asian side, while a positive trend was observed in Japan, transactions are not taking place in China, South Korea, and Hong Kong due to the holiday.

While a recovery was also seen in semiconductor stocks traded in Japan, Renesas Electronics gained 5.3 percent, and shares of Advantest, a manufacturer of test equipment for the semiconductor industry, gained 2.9 percent at this time.

On the other hand, according to data released in Japan today, the consumer confidence index for January came in below expectations at 35.2. With these developments, the Nikkei 225 index in Japan is trading with a 0.7 percent rise near the close.

In the domestic market, the BIST 100 index on Borsa Istanbul, which followed a buying-weighted trend yesterday, completed the day by gaining 1.24 percent at 10,121.77 points. While the Dollar/TL closed at 35.7351 with a horizontal trend yesterday, it is trading at the 35.7510 level with a 0.1 percent increase at the opening of the interbank market today.

In recent days, the new artificial intelligence model R1 of the Chinese artificial intelligence company DeepSeek had caused 'record drops' in the shares of US technology companies

WHICH DATA WILL GLOBAL MARKETS FOCUS ON?

Analysts stated that the data agenda is calm domestically today, while abroad, in addition to the Fed's interest rate decision in the US, mortgage applications and wholesale inventories will be followed, and noted that from a technical perspective, 10,160 and 10,280 points are resistance, and the 10,000 and 9,900 levels are support positions for the BIST 100 index.

The data to be followed in the markets today are as follows:

10.00 Germany, January GfK consumer confidence index

15.00 US, weekly mortgage applications

16.30 US, December wholesale inventories

22.00 US, January Fed interest rate decision

22.30 US, Fed Chair Powell's speech