US lowers oil price forecast!

The US Energy Information Administration (EIA) has revised its oil price forecast for this year downward, citing an increase in global oil inventories.

According to the EIA's "February 2023 Short-Term Energy Outlook Report," the price of Brent crude oil, the international benchmark, is expected to average $82.42 per barrel this year. This figure was estimated at $82.49 in the previous report.

The average price of West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil is also projected to be $77.68 per barrel. That figure was projected at $77.99 last month.

The EIA kept its Brent crude oil price forecast unchanged for next year at $79.48 per barrel and for WTI crude oil at $74.98 per barrel.

Global oil inventories are expected to decrease by an average of 800 thousand barrels per day in the first quarter of this year due to OPEC+ production cuts, which is expected to create upward pressure on oil prices.

According to the report, global inventories will follow a relatively balanced course for the remainder of the year, and production will continue to increase despite the expected slowdown in oil demand. Thus, there will be a gradual increase in global oil inventories next year.

Global oil demand is expected to increase by 2.71 million barrels per day this year to 102.42 million barrels per day, and to 103.71 million barrels per day next year. Global oil production is expected to increase by 550 thousand barrels per day this year to 102.3 million barrels, and by 1.87 million barrels per day next year to 107.17 million barrels.

With the expiration of current OPEC+ production cuts at the end of this year, global supply is estimated to increase by 700 thousand barrels next year. However, this increase may be limited as Saudi Arabia and other OPEC+ countries may want to maintain some of their production cuts to balance the markets.

Non-OPEC oil production is expected to increase by 1.2 million barrels per day. In the US, which reached a record level in December last year, crude oil production for this year has been revised downward. The country's production is expected to average 13.10 million barrels per day this year and 13.49 million barrels per day next year. In last month's report, these figures were estimated at 13.21 million barrels per day for this year and 13.44 million barrels per day for next year.