Will the rise in gold continue?

The gold market has displayed a remarkable performance throughout 2025. Interest rate cuts by the US Federal Reserve (FED) and global economic uncertainties have led to gold being preferred as a safe haven. In particular, the 25 basis point interest rate cut in September contributed to gold prices reaching historic highs.

REASONS FOR THE RISE IN GOLD

The price of an ounce of gold had fallen to 1,635 dollars in October 2022. However, as of 2025, gold has outperformed other asset classes, gaining 42 percent in value from the beginning of the year to September 22. Behind this rise are factors such as increased customs duties during the Trump era, stubborn inflation, and the FED's more moderate policies. Furthermore, central banks in Asia and emerging markets increasing their reserves and moving away from the dollar have also boosted demand for gold.

Expectations of interest rate cuts in the US have weakened the dollar, making gold more attractive to foreign buyers. Falling interest rates worldwide make holding gold more appealing. Additionally, interest in gold exchange-traded funds (ETFs) is contributing to the rise of this precious metal.

GOLD PRICES IN THE FUTURE

Analysts predict that the price of an ounce of gold could exceed 4,000 dollars next year. Goldman Sachs states that if institutional investors shift from US Treasury bonds to gold, prices could reach 5,000 dollars. JPMorgan estimates that, driven by the FED's interest rate cut cycle and investor demand, the price will reach 3,800 dollars per ounce in the fourth quarter of this year and exceed 4,000 dollars in the first quarter of next year.

Swiss bank UBS, pointing to interest rate cuts and the weakening dollar, has raised its gold price target for the end of 2025 to 3,800 dollars per ounce, and to 3,900 dollars for mid-2026. These forecasts indicate that gold will continue to remain an attractive option for investors in the future.