İmamoğlu 10 points ahead of Erdoğan! A striking difference in election results

Journalist Ertuğrul Özkök covered the April survey by KONDA Research in his column.

The survey, conducted between April 12-13, contained interesting results.

Özkök noted the following in his article:

İMAMOĞLU LEADS BY 10 POINTS

The concluding sentence in the April report is as follows:

“In the political context, what is truly striking is Ekrem İmamoğlu’s rise against President Erdoğan…”

We see this in two separate questions.

The first is the question, “Who should govern Turkey?”

Which of these 9 people should govern Turkey?

A multiple candidate ranking was made here.

In other words, not only Erdoğan and İmamoğlu, but also Mansur Yavaş, Selahattin Demirtaş, Devlet Bahçeli, Ümit Özdağ, Fatih Erbakan, Özgür Özel, and Müsavat Dervişoğlu were included.

When this question was asked in February, 22 percent answered Erdoğan and 13 percent answered İmamoğlu.

İmamoğlu rose by 9 points, Erdoğan by 4 points.

When asked on March 19, 22 percent said Erdoğan and 16 percent said İmamoğlu.

And when asked in April, the result is as follows:

Erdoğan rose by 4 points to 26 percent.

İmamoğlu rose by 9 points to reach 22 percent.

11 percent say Mansur Yavaş, 7 percent say Selahattin Demirtaş.

If an election were held between the two, who would it be: Erdoğan or İmamoğlu?

Then let’s come to the main question.

What would happen if an election were held today?

In an election scenario where Erdoğan and İmamoğlu compete, İmamoğlu receives 43 percent of the vote, while Erdoğan remains at 33 percent.

That is, there is a 10-point difference, and İmamoğlu’s rise continues.

March 19 lowers support for Erdoğan.

2 OUT OF EVERY 3 PEOPLE SAID ERDOĞAN WINNING WOULD BE 'BAD FOR TURKEY'

So, how can we summarize the political development after the March 19 blow?

ONE: “While İmamoğlu’s support rate remains unchanged, Erdoğan’s support among the general public has begun to fall.”

This is the real danger bell for Erdoğan.

TWO: But the most striking result of the March 19 blow is this:

The answer given to the question, “Would it be good or bad for Turkey if Erdoğan won the upcoming election again?”

Let me first provide the past.

In the 2023 Presidential election, 49 percent of the public answered this question as “It would be bad.”

In other words, the rate of those saying “It would be good for Turkey if Erdoğan won the election” was higher than those saying “It would be bad.”

The bill for March 19 is being charged to Erdoğan.

So what is the situation as a result of the March 19 blow?

One month after İmamoğlu was taken into custody on March 19, that is, in April, the situation is as follows:

67 percent of the Turkish public says, “It would be bad for Turkey if Erdoğan won the election.”

I think this is the most striking result of March 19.

And the bill for March 19 is being charged to President Erdoğan.

After heavy propaganda, does the public believe the allegations?

THE PUBLIC WAS NOT CONVINCED BY THE PROCESS OF İMAMOĞLU'S ARREST

The survey also has a striking section concerning the judiciary.

In the last month, the propaganda campaign by the pro-government media and trolls against İmamoğlu and his associates even surpassed those during the Ergenekon plots.

What is the result of secret witnesses, detainees forced to become informants, and slanders that have now hit below the belt?

I am quoting exactly from the survey:

The rate of those saying, “Ekrem İmamoğlu’s arrest is unlawful and I do not believe the accusations” is 62 percent.

Those saying “It is legal” are 38 percent.

6 out of every 10 Turkish citizens do not believe the allegations.

In other words, 6 out of every 10 Turkish citizens say this arrest is not a legal but a political decision and do not believe the corruption allegations.

Note that more than two months have passed since March 19, and despite this exaggerated propaganda, this belief among the public does not change.

DEMAND FOR PARLIAMENTARY SYSTEM HAS INCREASED

March 19 dealt the real fatal blow to the presidential system.

And I come to the most striking result of Konda, from which both the CHP and the AKP should draw lessons:

“In your opinion, is the presidential system or the previous parliamentary system correct?”

Hold on tight.

Now 7 out of every 10 Turkish citizens say, “The parliamentary system is correct.”

(*) Those saying “The presidential system is correct” fell by another 8 points in April.

(*) Those saying “The parliamentary system is correct” are 71 percent.

In other words:

7 out of every 10 Turkish citizens say, “The parliamentary system is correct.”

AKP supporters saying “The parliamentary system is correct” rose from 14 percent to 29 percent.

Moreover, while the rate of AKP supporters who previously said “The parliamentary system is correct” was 14 percent, this figure rose to 29 percent this month.

The April results of the Konda survey clearly reveal this.

The March 19 blow is costing President Erdoğan dearly.

And the public’s message is now clear:

“We do not believe the accusations directed at İmamoğlu; try him without arrest.”

“And give up the strengthened presidential system and return to the parliamentary system.”

I think these are two results that both AKP, CHP, and other party staff should think about very seriously.

The conclusion to be drawn for the CHP is this:

Boycotts have definitely not received support.