March 31 Local Elections: While the opposition won, the AKP and former leaders lost

WRITTEN BY: BEKİR ALİ YÜKSEL

The March 31, 2024 local elections witnessed surprising results in many respects.

For the first time since its founding, the AK Party became the second party in an election. The CHP, which had been unable to break out of its position as the chronic main opposition party for many years, became the leading party for the first time since 1977.

Winning mayoralties in all 7 geographical regions, the CHP took Kilis after 20 years, Adıyaman after 25 years, Üsküdar and Beyoğlu after 30 years, Kırıkkale after 35 years, Gaziosmanpaşa after 40 years, Bursa, Amasya, and Elbistan after 47 years, Yusufeli after 50 years, and Balıkesir, Manisa, Kütahya, and Alanya after 74 years.

For the first time in local elections, the AKP fell behind a rival political party in the number of provincial municipalities.

For the first time since 1999, a political party from the Milli Görüş tradition received over 6% of the vote and won provincial municipalities.

For the first time, a political party won 5 major provinces at once in local elections.

The IYI Party received its lowest vote share since its founding.

And for the first time since the 2004 local elections, the voter turnout remained below 80%.

An election with so many surprises will, of course, have its losers. The biggest losers of these elections have been the political actors of the post-Cold War era. While the window of politics in Turkey closed for these leaders on the morning of April 1, it has opened wide for new leaders.

The biggest share in this belongs, of course, to Mansur Yavaş and Ekrem İmamoğlu. Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu's decision to run by blocking these two candidates, swayed by his inner circle despite objections from all over Turkey, caused a loss in the general elections; however, it could not prevent the growing favor for these candidates.

This election, which the opposition voter welcomed with great joy, will not reflect on the general elections again like the 2019 local elections unless the right moves are made. It is of great importance that the opposition voter and especially the administrators who won the election do not lose sight of these issues.

The first duty of opposition municipalities is to try to stay away from daily polemics and primarily perform their duties as mayors. A successful administration in the municipalities will pave the way for the opposition's power in the 2028 general elections.

It should also be remembered that the nature of local elections is different from general elections. The Turkish public chose to punish the AKP again in a local election. However, expecting this to automatically reflect on the general elections would be a fallacy.

While the security policies followed by the AKP in general elections are respected by the public, this situation did not find favor in the local elections. However, it is clear that in the upcoming elections, the government, which is in an economic bottleneck, will again lean towards security policies to consolidate its own voters.

In the coming days, one of the goals of the operations the government will carry out in Syria and Iraq, aimed at the domestic public, will be to make people forget the election defeat.

Analyzing the AKP's defeat in the elections is also essential for the opposition. While there are multiple reasons for the AKP's election defeat, the most prominent issues are listed below.

Reasons for the AKP's Election Defeat

Economic Crisis: The economic crisis and inflation are the biggest reasons for the AKP losing the local elections. Especially in these elections, even staunch AKP voters did not go to the polls to punish the government.

Statement of No Raise for Retirees: Erdoğan stated that he would not increase the lowest pension of 10,000 TL under current economic conditions, that the promised increase for retirees could not be met even if all investments were stopped, and that this would place a very heavy burden on the budget. This issue angered retirees, a significant portion of whom are AKP voters, and its reflection at the ballot box was severe.

AKP's Hypocritical Stance in the Israel-Palestine War: The fact that the AKP, which reacted harshly to Israel's occupation of Gaza, continued to trade with Israel on the other hand, and the emergence of documents proving this, angered the Islamist voter, and Fatih Erbakan bringing this to the agenda created an uproar, lowering the AKP's vote.

New Constitution: Rumors that the first 4 articles of the Constitution of the Republic of Turkey would be changed were perceived negatively in Turkish society and strengthened concerns that the AKP might enter a new resolution process with the HDP after the election.

Recent Developments in Turkish Football: The fact that Turkish Football Federation President Mehmet Büyükekşi, who legitimized incompetence and ineptitude by remaining silent while gross mistakes were made that would accelerate social polarization—pitting friendly clubs whose histories date back to the fronts of the War of Independence against each other—was kept in office despite the disgrace in Saudi Arabia, and the fact that Fenerbahçe fans reacted to the government after the Fenerbahçe-Trabzonspor match, are also among the factors that determined the election.