84 trillion dollar risk warning for Süper El Nino

Expectations that a strong, or even one of the most severe El Nino events on record, could occur in the 2026-27 period have brought new risks to the global economy and Turkey to the agenda. According to assessments by the US National Weather Service, the probability of a strong El Nino in the Northern Hemisphere is over 90 percent. The probability of experiencing the strongest El Nino since official records began in 1950 is stated to be 69 percent.

Research conducted by Dartmouth College predicts that the total damage that El Nino cycles in the 21st century could cause to the global economy could reach 84 trillion dollars. Past strong El Nino periods also point to the scale of the risk: it is estimated that each of the severe El Nino events in the 1980s and 1990s caused between 4 and 5 trillion dollars in economic damage.

PRESSURE ON ENERGY, FOOD, AND TRADE MAY INCREASE

It is assessed that the effects of a possible Süper El Nino will not be limited to air temperatures, but could spread to a wide area ranging from energy markets to agricultural production and maritime transport. Morgan Stanley points out that different commodity groups such as sugar, cocoa, and copper could be affected by this process.

Energy markets are at the top of the risk list. While supply-side problems in oil and natural gas persist, it is stated that extreme weather events could increase the pressure on production and transport. The rise in energy costs is also expected to be reflected in agricultural production costs.

It is stated that if El Nino increases drought in Asia and Australia, yield losses could occur in staple products such as rice, corn, and wheat. It is reported that if agricultural conditions in Brazil deteriorate, sharp increases could be seen in tomato, potato, and carrot prices; and that the United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) also points to additional pressure on coffee, tea, and cocoa production.

Maritime trade also stands out as one of the fragile areas. The increased risk of storms and typhoons in the Pacific could affect routes between Asia and the Americas. If trade winds weaken, longer voyage times could increase fuel consumption and transport costs. During the 2023-24 El Nino period, due to the drought in the Panama Canal basin, restrictions were placed on the cargo capacity of ships and additional fees were increased.

The technology sector is also not exempt from risks related to climate conditions. Data centers, where electricity and water consumption are increasing with artificial intelligence investments, could create more pressure on energy and water resources during long heatwaves. Due to high water requirements, semiconductor production is also shown among the fragile areas; especially chip production in Taiwan is being closely monitored in terms of water resources.

DROUGHT, FLOOD, AND HEATWAVE WARNING FOR TURKEY

The Süper El Nino, which is associated with sea surface temperatures in the Pacific Ocean rising 2 degrees or more above normal, is expected to affect Turkey through atmospheric fluctuations. For Turkey, an extended summer season, high nighttime temperatures, and a longer-than-normal wildfire season are counted among the possible effects.

Disruption in precipitation patterns could lead to different results between regions. If overheated Mediterranean and Black Sea waters encounter cold air masses coming from the north, floods, severe storms, and Mediterranean hurricanes, known as "medicanes," could come to the agenda.

In the interior, it is estimated that the risk of chronic drought could increase with irregular rainfall. Drier conditions, where temperatures remain above seasonal norms during the autumn and winter periods, could increase the pressure on water resources and agricultural production.

Long heatwave periods increasing the need for cooling could mean additional load on electricity grids and an increase in energy costs. Experts emphasize that water management, agricultural planning, and fire prevention strategies in Turkey should be updated by taking new climate conditions into account.