Critical earthquake warning from expert: 'There is no place in Turkey that will not break'

Former faculty member of Karadeniz Technical University (KTÜ), Geological Engineer Prof. Dr. Osman Bektaş, stated that citizens should take the earthquake regulations into account and that those who want to learn about earthquake hazards should consult the earthquake hazard map published in 2019.

Noting that the building stock in Trabzon is quite poor, Bektaş said, "A place does not necessarily need to have a fault line to be affected by an earthquake. Trabzon was affected by the Kahramanmaraş and Elazığ earthquakes. Now it has been affected by the 4-magnitude earthquake in Gümüşhane. If there had been a 5-magnitude earthquake, it would have felt 10 times more. If there had been a 6-magnitude earthquake, Trabzon would have shaken 100 times more. There is a Black Sea fault to the north of Trabzon. This fault threatens Trabzon or the Black Sea coast. But we have very little information about this Black Sea Fault Line. We do not know the speed of the fault or the earthquake recurrence interval.

We do not know the earthquake energy production. An active, earthquake-producing fault that we do not know about is the real danger. There are 3 issues on the Black Sea coast—Trabzon, Rize, Ordu—that I fear. The building stock in Trabzon. It is extremely weak. Secondly, Trabzon is built on the coastal beach and on landslide-prone slopes. A medium-sized earthquake can trigger these landslide areas at any moment. Beyond that, because the ground is very poor and loose, we can feel even small earthquakes from far away here. Due to the geological characteristics of the region, there is an earthquake amplification.

The third issue I fear most is that local administrators still have not taken the perception of earthquakes seriously. Unfortunately, the perception that 'Trabzon is not an earthquake zone' has not yet been shattered. Local administrators are unfortunately not sensitive to this issue. The insensitivity of local administrators, the weakness of the ground, and the weakness of the building stock are the region's most important earthquake dangers and risks. Population and urbanization are increasing, and the damage we may see from an earthquake, as well as the loss of life and property, are increasing accordingly. We must take the necessary precautions. Let us not fear the earthquake; let us fear the administrators who do not take precautions against earthquakes or the society that does not create an earthquake perception," he said.

"TODAY'S SCIENCE DOES NOT KNOW THE LOCATION AND TIME OF AN EARTHQUAKE"

"Scientists can express their opinions, but it is not right to say 'this place is dangerous, this place is not dangerous'," said Bektaş, adding, "Until today, it has been said that 'there will be no earthquake in Trabzon, this is not an earthquake zone'; this stems from a lack of information. Last month, there was an earthquake in the Black Sea. People felt it. This means that nature's own movement, the earthquake created by the vibration, can have a greater impact on people than the discourse of a scientist. Now they say it can happen in Trabzon. A place does not necessarily need to have a fault line to be affected by an earthquake. If Trabzon is affected by a fault 300-400 kilometers to the south, we do not know what the 15-20 kilometer Black Sea fault in the north will do or when it will move. This fault destroyed Bartın with a 6.6-magnitude earthquake in 1968. At that time, Bartın was a town; now it is a province. In 2012, the fault off the coast of Batumi produced a 5.6-magnitude earthquake. The aftershocks of this earthquake reached Trabzon. These can mobilize people. The reaction created by nature is much more important than the statements of scientists. Scientists can express their opinions, but it is not right to say 'this place is dangerous, this place is not dangerous'. While we expect an earthquake in Istanbul, an earthquake can also occur in Trabzon, Gümüşhane, or Konya. Today's science does not know the location and time of an earthquake," he stated.