El Nino to scorch this summer
According to new forecasts released by the World Meteorological Organization, the probability of the El Nino weather phenomenon emerging in the summer of 2026 has reached 80 percent, and its effects are expected to last until November.
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A new alarm has been raised by international observers regarding the El Nino weather system affecting the entire globe. According to the latest report, the potential effects of temperatures in the Pacific Ocean remaining above normal could cause almost the entire world to face hot weather and extreme precipitation.
The analysis points out that there is an 80 percent probability of El Nino forming in the period between June and August 2026. Furthermore, the probability of this weather event continuing at least until November rises above 90 percent. Most experts predict that the upcoming El Nino will be moderate or even strong in its impact.
The report emphasizes that from late April to mid-May, sea surface temperatures in the Central and Eastern Equatorial Pacific approached the El Nino threshold, which is attributed to unusually high heat values accumulating beneath the surface. Temperatures in the region were measured at 6 degrees above normal. This situation is considered a harbinger of heat waves and precipitation anomalies on a global scale.
URGENT CLIMATE CALL FROM UN SECRETARY-GENERAL
In his assessment included in the report, United Nations Secretary-General Antonio Guterres stated: “El Nino is knocking at our door with a 90 percent probability in the coming months. The world must treat this as an urgent climate warning. El Nino conditions will pour gasoline on the fire of a warming world. The impacts will hit harder, spread further, and cross borders with devastating speed.”
Guterres also noted that an effective response to the climate crisis must include abandoning fossil fuels, accelerating the transition to renewable energy, protecting vulnerable communities, and establishing early warning systems for everyone.
World Meteorological Organization Secretary-General Celeste Saulo noted that countries and societies must be prepared for a potentially strong El Nino, stating, “El Nino will increase drought and heavy rainfall and raise the risk of heat waves on both land and sea. The last El Nino seen in 2023-24 was one of the five strongest events on record and contributed to record-level global temperatures last year.”
The effects of El Nino can lead to changes in temperature and precipitation patterns, extreme weather conditions, and an increase in the risk of natural disasters in many regions of the world, especially in countries bordering the Pacific Ocean.
While La Nina, the opposite of El Nino, points to cooler weather conditions globally, neutral atmospheric effects come to the fore during transitions between the two systems.