Prof. Dr. Doğanay Tolunay: We must shift from crisis management to risk management in forest fires

As the frequency and destructive impact of forest fires in Turkey increase due to the climate crisis, drought, high temperatures, and human negligence, Prof. Dr. Doğanay Tolunay, a faculty member at the Istanbul University-Cerrahpaşa Faculty of Forestry, has issued striking warnings regarding the fight against these fires.

Appearing as a guest on the Yaşam Hasadı (Life Harvest) program broadcast on SosyalUp’s YouTube channel, Tolunay opposed limiting the debate on firefighting solely to the number of aircraft and helicopters. According to Tolunay, Turkey’s real need is to transition from a “crisis management” mindset, which kicks in after a fire starts, to a “risk management” approach that aims to reduce risks before a fire occurs.

According to data from the Ministry of Agriculture and Forestry, 3,224 forest fires occurred in Turkey in 2025, with more than 81,473 hectares of forest area affected. In the 38-year period between 1988 and 2025, a total of 634,575 hectares of land were damaged in 86,531 forest fires. This area is larger than the entire city of Istanbul.

A 'ZERO FIRE' TARGET IS NOT REALISTIC

Tolunay stated that fire is a part of ecological processes, especially in the Aegean and Mediterranean regions, and that a “zero fire” target is unrealistic. According to the academic, the goal should be to reduce the number and impact of fires as much as possible.

Criticizing the approach sometimes voiced by the public that “Turkish red pines burn easily, so other species should be planted instead,” Tolunay reminded that red pines and the maquis shrubland have evolved alongside the Mediterranean climate. He emphasized that this vegetation possesses fire-adapted characteristics and has a high capacity for forest regeneration after a fire.

It is essential to base our actions on nature. We need to take cues from nature. People say, 'There are no fires in the Black Sea, the tree species there don't burn, let's bring them here to the Mediterranean.' The fact that there are no fires in the Black Sea and that the tree species there do not burn is entirely related to the climate.

Tolunay stated that moving moisture-loving trees native to the Black Sea to the Aegean and Mediterranean would not be a solution. Expressing that these species have a low chance of survival in arid conditions, Tolunay said that the natural ecosystem should be the basis for post-fire restoration efforts.

FLAMMABLE MATERIAL MANAGEMENT COMES TO THE FORE

It is reported that Turkey has assigned 161 aircraft for the 2026 fire season, consisting of 28 airplanes, 119 helicopters, and 14 unmanned aerial vehicles, with the total water-dropping capacity of the air fleet increased to 462 tons. However, Tolunay emphasizes that increasing intervention capacity alone is not enough.

According to data from the General Directorate of Forestry, a significant portion of fires are caused by human factors. While 42 percent of fires are caused by negligence and carelessness, 13 percent by accidents, 4 percent by arson, and 9 percent by lightning, the cause of 32 percent remains undetermined.

According to Tolunay, it is not just the spark but also the amount of flammable material in the forest that determines the growth of a fire. Dry grass, fallen leaves, and the shrub layer can cause a small spark to spread in a short time, especially with the effect of the wind. For this reason, practices such as mowing, controlled burning, or goat grazing in certain areas should be considered as part of a flammable material management plan tailored to the conditions of the region.

Stating that goat grazing is not a universal formula for every forest, Tolunay pointed out that goats can damage saplings in young forests. Conversely, he stated that in some areas where trees have sufficiently developed, the consumption of grass and shrubs can contribute to reducing fire risk.

Tolunay also said that a one-size-fits-all prescription should not be applied for post-fire work, noting that an inventory should be taken in every burned area first. He stated that the restoration method should be determined only after recording which species were burned, the age of the forest, the intensity of the fire, and the ecological characteristics of the area.

Tolunay also emphasized that planting saplings should not always be the first option. Suggesting that natural regeneration should be supported if there is a sufficient seed source, Tolunay also warned citizens against planting saplings uncontrollably with good intentions. He said that moving garden trees or species unsuitable for the area into the forest could both fail and create a risk of disease.

Stating that climate change must now be one of the fundamental variables in forestry planning, Tolunay reminded that a sapling planted today will live for decades, drawing attention to the fact that Turkey may face hotter and drier conditions in the next 50 years.