Thermometers at historic levels: Will the extreme heatwave in Europe reach Turkey?

The extraordinary heatwave affecting Europe has made daily life difficult in many countries from the west of the continent toward its center. While France is experiencing one of the hottest days in its history, England has recorded record temperatures for June; in Spain, the highest daily average temperatures measured since 1950 have been reached.

According to experts, the situation has gone beyond ordinary summer heat. The fact that the heatwave began weeks before the mid-to-late July period, which is considered the hottest part of the summer season, and reached record levels has brought the impact of climate change on Europe back to the agenda.

RECORD TEMPERATURES AFFECTED DAILY LIFE

Millions of people in Western Europe are struggling with temperatures above 40 degrees. As thermometers in Paris approach 41 degrees, a red heat alert, the highest level, has been activated in more than half of France. While power outages have occurred in tens of thousands of households in the west of the country, iconic structures such as the Louvre Museum and the Eiffel Tower were closed earlier than usual due to extreme heat.

The national temperature indicator in France reached 30 degrees on Wednesday, seeing the highest value recorded since 1947. On Tuesday, the June temperature record was broken in 147 settlements; temperatures exceeded 43 degrees at 41 meteorological stations. It was reported that water temperatures in some rivers are approaching levels that would strain the safe cooling processes of nuclear power plants.

In Spain, while temperatures exceeded 45 degrees in many regions, thermometers did not drop below 30 degrees even at night in some locations. A June temperature record was broken in the English city of Gosport with 36.1 degrees. While a red alert is in effect in the northern and central parts of Italy; temperatures are expected to peak toward the weekend in Germany, the Netherlands, and Belgium.

HEAT DOME AND CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACT

Scientists state that at the root of the heatwave lies the fact that high-pressure systems remain stationary over a region for a long time. In this atmospheric arrangement, called an "Omega block," hot air is trapped in layers close to the ground, cloud formation decreases, and sunlight heats the ground more. These conditions create the effect known in the public as a "heat dome."

According to experts, human-induced greenhouse gas emissions pave the way for such systems to produce more frequent and more severe results. The fact that Europe is the fastest-warming continent in the world also increases the risk. According to data from the Copernicus Climate Change Service, while the global temperature increase is approximately 1.4 degrees compared to the pre-industrial period, this increase has reached approximately 2.4 degrees in Europe.

While Europe experienced 5 major heatwaves in the 50-year period between 1950-1999, this number rose to 18 in the 2000-2021 period. When the extreme temperatures in 2022, 2023, and 2025 are added, the continent has faced more than 20 severe heatwaves in the last 25 years.

Whether the heat is caused by El Niño is also being debated. Although the World Meteorological Organization sees a high probability of El Niño developing in the summer of 2026, experts emphasize that the current wave in Europe cannot be explained directly by El Niño. Climate scientist Sarah Perkins-Kirkpatrick describes this picture as a "classic jet stream block," while stating that long-term global warming strengthens the mechanism.

WILL IT EXTEND TO TURKEY?

According to current forecasts, there is a possibility that the heatwave could extend to Turkey. However, at this stage, there is no forecast indicating that the record values at the 44-45 degree level in France will be seen in the same way across Turkey. The extent to which Turkey will be affected will depend on how much the high-pressure system expands eastward in the coming days.

WHICH REGIONS MIGHT BE AFFECTED?

It is stated that if the system moves toward the Balkans and Eastern Europe, temperatures in Thrace and Marmara could increase significantly, and values above seasonal norms in the Aegean and Mediterranean could rise even further. It is considered likely that the heat will also increase its effect in the west of Central Anatolia.