Danger after the 5.9 magnitude earthquake: Is a new major earthquake imminent?

Following the 5.9 magnitude earthquake that occurred in the Kale district of Malatya yesterday morning, a series of statements have come from geoscientists. Earthquake experts continue to issue warnings regarding Turkey's earthquake risk map. Those who felt the earthquake in Elazığ, Şanlıurfa, Adıyaman, Batman, and surrounding provinces are curious about earthquake-prone areas in the Eastern and Central Anatolia regions.

Minister of Environment, Urbanization and Climate Change Murat Kurum announced that after the 5.9 magnitude earthquake, 1,211 reports have been evaluated so far, and 20 heavily damaged and 517 slightly damaged buildings have been identified in Elazığ, while 18 slightly damaged buildings have been identified in Malatya.

Geoscientist Prof. Dr. Naci Görür made new statements to Hürriyet regarding the Malatya earthquake. Emphasizing that the earthquake did not occur on the Malatya Fault but on the East Anatolian Fault, Görür stated that, with the exception of Bingöl-Karlıova, there will not be an earthquake of a magnitude capable of causing a disaster on that fault. Issuing warnings regarding the East Anatolian Fault, Görür stated, "It began operating 14.6 million years ago; it has produced earthquakes in the past, and it will continue to produce them in the future."

Highlights from Naci Görür's statements are as follows:

"This earthquake was not on the Malatya Fault as described, but on the East Anatolian Fault. It was triggered by the energy released after the 2020 Elazığ and February 6, 2023, Kahramanmaraş earthquakes. Do not be afraid! Except for Bingöl-Karlıova, there will no longer be an earthquake of a magnitude capable of causing a disaster on that fault, but if your building is damaged, do not enter your homes!

BİNGÖL-KARLIOVA WARNING

The fault that comes from between Elazığ and Malatya, extends to Maraş, and continues from Bingöl-Karlıova to Hatay is the East Anatolian Fault. If you also count the part extending to the Dead Sea, this is a 600-kilometer-long 'plate boundary fault' located between the Anatolian plate and the African plate in the south. It began operating 14.6 million years ago; it has produced earthquakes in the past, and it will continue to produce them in the future. The Malatya Fault, on the other hand, is to the west of Malatya. That is a completely different fault. The 5.9 magnitude earthquake has nothing to do with the Malatya Fault or any other such fault!

"IT MAY ADVANCE THE TIMING OF AN EARTHQUAKE"

The East Anatolian Fault ruptured from Elazığ in 2020. A 6.8 magnitude earthquake occurred, at which time I said that attention should be paid to Maraş. Because we know that once these faults, which we call strike-slip, rupture, they transfer their energy to the right and left, to the sides that have not yet ruptured. Three years after Elazığ, we experienced the 7.7 magnitude Maraş earthquakes. One of the reasons for this was energy transfer.

The transfer of energy can advance the timing of a fault's earthquake production. Think of it this way; one end of the fault (for example, Malatya-Maraş) has been producing energy for centuries, and there is an accumulation ready for an earthquake. When the other end (Elazığ) ruptures, what happens is that the energy released there is loaded onto the side that has not yet ruptured (i.e., Maraş and Malatya). The fault, unable to carry this much load, gives way.

We call this 'the straw that broke the camel's back.' The cup was filled and overflowed with two different major earthquakes in 2020 and 2023. A large amount of energy was released on this fault. You are rightly asking, 'Well, where did this earthquake come from then?' The energy was released but it did not disappear. Some of it was distributed toward Malatya-Elazığ, and some toward Hatay.

However, because this energy had already created two major earthquakes and was therefore exhausted, it could not create such a major earthquake this time, remaining limited to 5.9. This energy transfer will continue in the coming days. But do not be afraid! As I said, there is no 'major' energy left! Therefore, the East Anatolian Fault will no longer produce major earthquakes; it will remain limited to earthquakes of magnitude 5-6.