Ahmet Ercan issues Istanbul earthquake warning on the anniversary of August 17

25 years have passed since the Marmara Earthquake on August 17, 1999.

Earthquake scientist Prof. Dr. Ahmet Ercan made significant statements on the anniversary of the disaster.

Speaking to Mynet, Ercan stated that he expects earthquakes in two locations in the Marmara region.

Describing both the riskiest districts and the safest regions of Istanbul, Ercan emphasized that the impact of a potential earthquake would be greater than that of August 17.

Stating that he expects two earthquakes, Ercan pointed to Küçükçekmece as the first priority, while drawing attention to Tekirdağ for the second earthquake.

IMPACT OF A POTENTIAL EARTHQUAKE

Emphasizing the high density of people and structures in Istanbul, Ercan stated that even if a potential earthquake is not very large, its impact could be greater than that of August 17. According to Ercan, what is frightening in this scenario is the number of people living here and the structure of the buildings.

RISK IS HIGHER IN EUROPE

Stating that the risk of damage on the European Side is 65 percent, Ercan noted that the risk of damage on the Anatolian Side is 35 percent.

"The main reasons for this are that the earthquake epicenter will be in front of the European Side. In other words, it will be around Küçükçekmece, where the city's densest construction is located, with 3,500-4,500 people per square kilometer." Ercan stated, adding, "The structures on the European side are relatively older, of lower quality, and do not meet the regulations."

Ercan's statements are as follows:

WHICH ARE THE MOST AT-RISK DISTRICTS IN ISTANBUL?

“The historic peninsula (Suriçi), Fatih, Zeytinburnu, Küçükçekmece, Bakırköy, Bağcılar, and parts of Güneşli and İkitelli are at risk. In Avcılar, especially areas with poorly reinforced structures, Sefaköy and Güneşli, and Bahçelievler. In addition to these, some parts of Beylikdüzü, Kumburgaz, and Büyükçekmece are the places that will be most affected. Along the Bosphorus coast, areas with old riverbeds such as Ihlamırdere, Dereboyu in Ortaköy, the slopes of Kuruçeşme, as well as some neighborhoods in Üsküdar. The Kurbağalıdere sections where Fenerbahçe is located. The coastal parts of Maltepe and Kartal, Tuzla, and some parts of the Princes' Islands (Adalar). Especially the sandy coastal areas where urbanization has taken place.”

WHERE ARE THE SAFE PLACES?

“The safest places are in the north of Istanbul. The construction of the airport is encouraging settlement towards the north. Istanbul's growth needs to be stopped, but the exact opposite is happening.”

THE Kanal İstanbul FACTOR

“Insisting on Kanal İstanbul increases earthquake risk. Kanal İstanbul does not cause an earthquake, but the development of those areas increases the damage in the event of an earthquake.”

Neither Çorlu nor Çerkezköy is safe. The summer houses in Tekirdağ are structurally low-rise; I do not see a risk there.

I am expecting an earthquake with a magnitude of 7-7.2 off the coast of Marmara Ereğlisi. This means a Tekirdağ earthquake. Naturally, this will affect the province and its districts.

"Unfortunately, Istanbul cannot bear this much density of buildings and people. What is happening in Istanbul is not urban transformation, but structural transformation. Bank loans are being provided to save 10-15 families. As a result, only the contractor profits."

WHAT MAGNITUDE EARTHQUAKE IS EXPECTED?

“I have not changed my discourse since 1999. We know the expected earthquake, but we are not certain about its timing. I am expecting two earthquakes. One is between 6.4 and 6.7 in magnitude, 25 kilometers south of Küçükçekmece and at a depth of 7 kilometers. The potential earthquake will rupture in an east-west direction. Roughly, it will rupture from Kınalıada-Sivriada to Küçükçekmece.”

The other branch is the Tekirdağ branch. It will also be off the coast of Marmara Ereğlisi. I expect its depth to be between 7 and 10 kilometers. It will be close to Tekirdağ. The area it will rupture is the region from Büyükçekmece to the Gulf of Saros.

HOW MANY SECONDS WOULD A POTENTIAL MARMARA EARTHQUAKE LAST?

“The first earthquake among those I mentioned above will last between 20 and 35 seconds. I expect the second earthquake to last between 30 and 40 seconds as well. There have been 16 destructive earthquakes in Istanbul up to this time. None of them remained as a single event. In other words, when an earthquake occurs, 3-4 more earthquakes follow. The tremors continue for another 2-3 years.

Earthquakes have a law. If they have occurred in the past, they will behave the same way in the future. When I observe the last 16 destructive earthquakes, I see the same behavior in all of them. Istanbul and Tekirdağ, Kocaeli, Yalova, Bursa-Mudanya, Çanakkale-Lâpseki, and Tekirdağ-Şarköy will continue to shake for another 2-3 years. There is no such thing as the earthquake being over and done with.

"ITS IMPACT WILL BE GREATER THAN AUGUST 17"

“Due to the high density of people and structures in Istanbul, even if an earthquake is not very large, its impact could be greater than that of August 17. What is frightening is this number of people and the structure. I do not understand how people are encouraged to move to Istanbul while we are expecting an earthquake. I am not saying Istanbul should be evacuated. I am saying that settlement should not be incentivized. This situation could lead us toward events we do not expect. A 7.1 magnitude earthquake occurred in Japan. We see that there are no deaths or injuries. If it had happened in Turkey, it would have caused a catastrophe.”

"IF IT IS THOUGHT OF AS GOD'S WRATH RATHER THAN A NATURAL PHENOMENON..."

"If a country's economy is in poor shape, if the economy is low, and if an earthquake is thought of as God's wrath rather than a natural phenomenon, then it is impossible to prevent an earthquake from turning into a disaster in that country. It is the same scene in every earthquake. The poor are left under the rubble. Urban transformation is carried out in the wealthy districts of Istanbul, and the wealthy save themselves, but this does not happen in the poor districts."

IS ANOTHER EARTHQUAKE EXPECTED IN HATAY?

“I do not expect a major earthquake in Hatay. That earthquake has already occurred, and that fault line has broken. The area around the Asi River was dangerous, but development took place there.”

"Ultimately, as long as we do not fix this economy, earthquakes will always be called disasters."