Celal Şengör had said 'those who survive will wish they had died' regarding a possible Istanbul earthquake: Earthquake debate among scientists! Who is telling the truth?

While Geoscientist Prof. Dr. Celal Şengör's warning of an earthquake greater than magnitude 7 for Istanbul has caused a wide stir in public opinion, two prominent figures have criticized Şengör's disaster scenario. Prof. Dr. Osman Bektaş and Dr. Ramazan Demirtaş stated that Şengör's remarks are unscientific and argued that the earthquake risk in Istanbul should be addressed from different perspectives.

ŞENGÖR WARNED: 'WISH WE HAD DIED'

In a recent statement, Celal Şengör emphasized that an earthquake greater than magnitude 7 is expected in Istanbul and expressed that the city would face a grim situation in a potential disaster. Şengör had used the expressions, "Within a few days, hunger will begin in the city, looting will occur, and epidemics will break out. The rubble will not be able to be cleared for a long time, and the city will be covered in a heavy stench. Those who do not die will say, 'I wish we had died'."

CRITICISM THAT 'SCIENCE IS NOT DONE BY RULE OF THUMB'

Dr. Ramazan Demirtaş responded to Şengör's statement on social media. Sharing a map and saying, "Earthquake science is not done by rule of thumb, only chaos is written," Demirtaş underlined that statements such as "100 thousand buildings will collapse, 4 million people will remain under the rubble, if Istanbul collapses, Turkey will collapse to its knees, those who survive will wish they had died..." lack a scientific basis.

Demirtaş also emphasized that writing disaster scenarios by associating every earthquake of magnitude 4.0 and above with a Marmara earthquake causes psychological, sociological, and economic harm to society, and stressed that these discourses offer no contribution to risk reduction or the prevention of loss of life.

'THE DANGER OF THE MARMARA IS NOT YET CLEAR'

Prof. Dr. Osman Bektaş, who stated that earthquake science can only speak with concrete data, made a similar criticism. Expressing that there are many uncertainties regarding the characteristics of the fault lines in the Marmara, Bektaş made the following assessment:

“Not only are the fault models uncertain, but the annual slip rate of each segment, earthquake recurrence intervals, and elapsed times are also not clear. The earthquake recurrence period cannot be determined with average data. The earthquake danger of the Marmara has not yet been resolved.”

'ISTANBUL IS THREATENED BY A MODERATE EARTHQUAKE'

Bektaş also pointed out that Şengör's expressions that "those who live will regret having lived" do not align with scientific facts, and noted that the greatest threat to Istanbul might not be a massive earthquake, but a moderate one:

“Some parts of the Main Marmara Fault are accumulating earthquake energy, but the creeping or fully slipping parts do not accumulate earthquake energy. Therefore, Istanbul may be threatened by moderate earthquakes.”

CALL FOR SCIENTIFIC MEASURES INSTEAD OF CHAOS SCENARIOS

Both experts emphasized that instead of chaos scenarios that cause fear and panic in society regarding earthquakes, measures based on scientific foundations should be discussed.