EU's inflation forecast for Turkey revealed: Here is what the minimum wage increase should be
The European Commission has announced that it expects average inflation in Turkey to be 59.8 percent in 2024. Accordingly, the minimum wage calculation has also changed. Here is what the wage should be if Turkey were to increase the minimum wage according to EU criteria...
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In its "European Economic Forecast, Autumn 2024" report prepared for European Union member and candidate countries, the European Commission lowered its 2024 growth forecast for the Turkish economy from 3.5 percent to 3.0 percent. It raised the average inflation forecast from 57.4 percent to 59.8 percent.
Lowering its GDP growth forecast for 2025 from 3.8 percent to 3.2 percent, the European Commission projected that growth would be 4.0 percent in 2026.
Lowering its average inflation forecast for 2025 from 31.5 percent to 30.8 percent, the European Commission announced its inflation forecast for 2026 as 17.8 percent.
INCREASE IN INFLATION FORECAST
The forecasts included in the European Commission's Autumn 2024 Report are as follows:
The European Commission's consumer price expectation for Turkey at the end of 2024 is 59.8 percent, while it is 30.8 percent for 2025 and 17.8 percent for 2026.
The European Commission announced growth expectations for Turkey of 3.0 percent in 2024, 3.2 percent next year, and 4.0 percent in 2026.
WHAT THE MINIMUM WAGE SHOULD BE
If a minimum wage figure is determined according to European Commission data, this figure exceeds 27 thousand liras.
In Turkey, the minimum wage is determined every year in December by the Minimum Wage Determination Commission with the participation of worker and employer unions and ministry representatives.
While the employer side wants an increase between 25-30 percent, the expectation of the worker side is much higher.
Most recently, economists signed a joint statement and stated that this figure should be increased by at least 50 percent.
If an increase of 59.8 percent, which is the inflation expectation included in the European Commission data, is made, the minimum wage in Turkey will be 27 thousand 169 TL.