Expectations for the 2025 minimum wage increase! A 30 percent raise is on the agenda

According to statements made by S&P following the upgrade of Turkey's credit rating, a 30 percent raise for the minimum wage is on the agenda.

According to TÜİK data, monthly inflation in October rose by 2.88 percent, while annual inflation stood at 48.58 percent.

This rate will play a decisive role in the minimum wage increase.

STRIKING MINIMUM WAGE COMMENT FROM S&P

S&P, which upgraded Turkey's credit rating last week, stated that the minimum wage should be updated with an increase between year-end inflation and the 2025 inflation target. While S&P expects year-end inflation to be around 44 percent, it projected that a 30 percent raise could be applied to the minimum wage, taking into account the 17.5 percent inflation target for 2025.

President Erdoğan and Minister of Labor and Social Security Vedat Işıkhan have emphasized that the minimum wage will not be crushed by inflation.

Minister Işıkhan stated that the path followed last year would be applied in the same way this year, ensuring a raise that protects the purchasing power of citizens.

The Minimum Wage Determination Commission will meet in December with the participation of labor, employer, and government representatives. It is stated that this year's 2025 minimum wage negotiations will be based on expected inflation rather than realized inflation.

Negotiations are expected to start from the 20,000 TL level based on the 17.5 percent inflation target.

HIGH EXPECTATIONS FROM THE LABOR SIDE

The labor side is demanding a welfare share increase in addition to the inflation rate. With the hunger threshold rising to 20,432 TL in October and year-end inflation estimated to be in the 40-45 percent range, labor representatives are expected to demand a 50 percent increase.

According to experts, the wide price range on the table indicates that reaching a consensus will be difficult. Last year, the 49.25 percent raise could not be determined by unanimous vote; it is thought that a decision may be reached by majority vote this year as well.

MINIMUM WAGE ESTIMATE

The economic management aims to implement a raise in line with the inflation rate.

Given the forecast that year-end inflation will hover in the 40-45 percent band and that the expected inflation for 2025 is 17.5 percent, it is estimated that with a 30 percent raise, the minimum wage will reach the 22,102 TL level as of the new year.