Kandilli announces: The region with the highest probability of an earthquake in the Marmara has been identified!

While the earthquake swarm that has been continuing for days in the Aegean Sea is being followed with concern, striking statements regarding Turkey's constant agenda, earthquakes, have come from the Kandilli Observatory. Kandilli Observatory Director Meral Özel made statements regarding both the seismic activity in the Aegean Sea and the expected potential Marmara earthquake.

1260 EARTHQUAKES IN THE AEGEAN SEA IN ONE WEEK

Touching upon the seismic activity that has occurred in the Aegean Sea over the last week, Özel stated that they are closely monitoring the earthquakes in question, which have the potential to produce earthquakes and volcanic activity, 24/7, and that 1260 earthquakes of varying magnitudes occurred in the region between February 1-6.

Pointing out that 100 of the earthquakes in the last week were of magnitude 4 or greater, Özel provided the following information: "Since 2012, the Kandilli Observatory has been generating messages for 13 surrounding countries and 16 institutes under UNESCO regarding tsunamis that may occur as a result of earthquakes in the seas around Turkey, including the Mediterranean, Marmara, Black Sea, and all connected seas. If a major earthquake occurs in our seas or on our Western coasts, a tsunami message will be generated by the Kandilli Observatory and sent to AFAD."

Prof. Dr. Özel emphasized that earthquakes of varying magnitudes are continuing in the region, stating, "As the Kandilli Observatory, we are examining not only the earthquakes but also whether there could be any water rise or tsunami wave that could reach our coasts if a major earthquake occurs there. At the Kandilli Observatory, approximately 1260 earthquakes were analyzed in one week."

Stating that the earthquakes in the Aegean Sea exhibit a tectonic structure, Özel noted that the area in question is a region with vertical faults that are more dangerous in terms of tsunamis.

Sharing the earthquake data for this sea from the last 50 years, Özel continued as follows:

"There is the 1956 Amorgos Earthquake, a very large earthquake. It created a large tsunami and damage of 7.7-7.8 (magnitude). Historical records even show that the tsunami waves generated by this earthquake reached as far as Egypt. There is also the 1989-1991 earthquake series, which started at a medium magnitude and ended without a major rupture. There is the 2002-2003 Aegean Earthquake series. The 2011-2012 period is the most recent example, where there was also an earthquake swarm and volcanic activity. There was no major eruption. We are closely monitoring the activity continuing these days in 2024-25."

IDENTIFIED THE REGION WITH THE HIGHEST PROBABILITY OF AN EARTHQUAKE!

Responding to questions from members of the press, Özel answered the question, "Do you have sufficient work for a possible Marmara Earthquake?" by saying, "The recurrence period in the Marmara is between 250-300 years. The uncertainties of historical earthquakes in the Marmara are greater than in other places."

Stating that they are working on possible scenarios in this area and that predictions for the region can vary, Özel said, "We believe that the region with the highest probability of an earthquake is the Kumburgaz Fault in the Central Marmara. However, uncertainties within historical earthquakes prevent us from making definitive predictions."