Predictions for retiree and civil servant salaries have been announced

As the January 2025 salary increase expected by civil servants and retirees approaches, clues regarding the raise rates have begun to clarify.

SSK and Bağ-Kur retirees will receive a raise based on the inflation rate realized in the second half of 2024.

Civil servants and retired civil servants, on the other hand, will receive a 6 percent raise as part of the collective bargaining agreement, plus the difference by which the inflation in the second 6-month period exceeds 10 percent.

So far, inflation data for July, August, and September have been released. TÜİK announced inflation figures as 3.23 percent in July, 2.47 percent in August, and 2.97 percent in September. Thus, the 3-month inflation rate reached 8.92 percent. The remaining 3 months of data will finalize the figures for the raise.

Surveys conducted with economists have provided projections for the January 2025 retiree raise and civil servant salary increase.

Some of the surveys conducted are as follows:

CENTRAL BANK MARKET PARTICIPANTS SURVEY

According to the CBRT October Market Participants Survey, the year-end inflation expectation was estimated at 44.11 percent. If this figure is reached, the SSK and Bağ-Kur retiree salary increase will be 15.53 percent. The civil servant raise will be 11.33 percent, with a 5.03 percent inflation difference. Thus, the lowest civil servant salary will reach 43,647 liras, and the retired civil servant salary will reach 19,580 liras.

AA FINANCE SURVEY

The year-end inflation estimate made by this institution was 43.23 percent. The January raise will reach 14.83 percent for SSK and Bağ-Kur, and a total of 10.65 percent for civil servants and retired civil servants with a 4.39 inflation difference.

Lowest civil servant salary estimate: 43,381 TL

Lowest retired civil servant salary estimate: 19,461 TL

REUTERS SURVEY

Reuters economists expect the year-end CPI data to be 42.95 percent. Based on this figure, the SSK and Bağ-Kur retiree raise will be 14.60 percent. The inflation difference for civil servants and retired civil servants will be 4.18 percent, and the raise rate will be 10.43 percent.

Lowest civil servant salary estimate: 43,294 TL

Lowest retired civil servant salary estimate: 19,422 TL

FINANCIAL INSTITUTIONS ASSOCIATION

In the survey conducted by the Financial Institutions Association, the expectation appears as the highest figure. With an estimate of 45.24 percent, the SSK and Bağ-Kur retiree salary increase is expected to reach 16.43 percent. For civil servants and retired civil servants, the figure corresponds to 12.2 percent with a 5.85 percent inflation difference.

Lowest civil servant salary estimate: 43,988 TL

Lowest retired civil servant salary estimate: 19,733 TL

CENTRAL BANK MARKET PARTICIPANTS SURVEY

According to the CBRT October Market Participants Survey, the year-end inflation expectation was estimated at 44.11 percent. If this figure is reached, the SSK and Bağ-Kur retiree salary increase will be 15.53 percent. The civil servant raise will be 11.33 percent, with a 5.03 percent inflation difference. Thus, the lowest civil servant salary will reach 43,647 liras, and the retired civil servant salary will reach 19,580 liras.

AA FINANCE SURVEY

The year-end inflation estimate made by this institution was 43.23 percent. The January raise will reach 14.83 percent for SSK and Bağ-Kur, and a total of 10.65 percent for civil servants and retired civil servants with a 4.39 inflation difference.

Lowest civil servant salary estimate: 43,381 TL

Lowest retired civil servant salary estimate: 19,461 TL