The critical day is approaching: How much will retiree and civil servant salaries be? Here are the raise scenarios

The minimum wage set for 2025 was announced as 22,104.67 TL, an increase of 30 percent. However, the fact that the increase in the minimum wage remained below the expectations in the 40-50 percent range sets a precedent for the raises to be applied to retiree pensions, civil servant salaries, and public sector worker wages.

It is stated that it is difficult for additional raises on top of legal increases, which were implemented in the last two years, to be on the agenda in 2025. For this reason, it is anticipated that salary raises will remain limited to legal regulations.

INFLATION DATA IS AWAITED

In January, retiree pensions will be increased according to the 6-month inflation rate for the July-December period. The inflation data to be announced by the Turkish Statistical Institute (TÜİK) will be decisive in clarifying the salary increases.

The Central Bank had revised its 2024 inflation forecast to 44 percent. For this forecast to be realized, inflation in December must remain at 0.76 percent.

However, the fact that December inflation rates in previous years have ranged between 1.18 percent and 13.58 percent makes it difficult for this forecast to hold.

Minister of Treasury and Finance Mehmet Şimşek stated that year-end inflation would be around 45 percent. For this forecast to hold, the December inflation rate must not exceed 1.50 percent.

The upper limit of the Central Bank's inflation path was announced as 46 percent. For this rate, December inflation needs to be 2.16 percent. Economists expect year-end inflation to be around 46 percent.

CURRENT STATUS OF SSK AND BAĞ-KUR PENSIONS

The raise rates to be applied to SSK and BAĞ-KUR retiree pensions will be determined according to the annual inflation rate:

Inflation 45 percent: Raise rate 16.25 percent

Inflation 46 percent: Raise rate 17.05 percent

Inflation 47 percent: Raise rate 17.85 percent

LOWER RAISE FOR CIVIL SERVANT SALARIES

The raise rates to be applied to civil servant salaries and retired civil servant pensions will remain below the SSK and BAĞ-KUR raises. Accordingly:

Inflation 45 percent: Raise rate 12.02 percent

Inflation 46 percent: Raise rate 12.79 percent

Inflation 47 percent: Raise rate 13.56 percent

The raise rates for civil servant salaries will be at least 4.2 points lower than the SSK and BAĞ-KUR raises in any case. In 2024, while a 24.73 percent raise was applied to SSK and BAĞ-KUR retiree pensions, a 19.31 percent increase was applied to civil servant salaries.

HOW MUCH WILL THE LOWEST PENSION BE?

Vice President Cevdet Yılmaz had announced that a regulation would be made for the lowest pension, which is 12,500 TL. The raise to be applied to the lowest pension will be in parallel with the SSK and BAĞ-KUR raise rates:

16.25 percent raise: 14,531 TL

17.05 percent raise: 14,631 TL

17.85 percent raise: 14,731 TL

However, this amount is expected to reach a rounded figure such as 14,500-15,000 TL. A higher increase is not foreseen. There are two reasons for this:

The desire not to increase the number of people receiving the lowest pension, which is over 3.7 million.

Not widening the gap between the premiums paid throughout working life and the pension amount further.

2025 RAISE SCENARIOS

According to the Central Bank's inflation path, 6-month inflation in the January-June 2025 period will be in the 11-14 percent range.

In this case:

SSK and BAĞ-KUR retiree pensions will be increased by the 6-month inflation rate.

The raise rate for civil servant salaries and retired civil servant pensions will be in the 9.95-12.92 percent range.

The raise rates for civil servant salaries are expected to be at least 1 point lower than the SSK and BAĞ-KUR raises in any case.