Warning for 13 days from now: That decision could shake the economy!

The Central Bank will announce its interest rate decision at the Monetary Policy Committee meeting to be held on July 24. Experts state that this meeting could be one of the most critical economic thresholds of 2025. Economists expect a rate cut of 250 to 500 basis points in the policy rate.

CAN THE STOCK MARKET EXCEED 11 THOUSAND POINTS, BUT WILL IT LAST?

One of the biggest questions for investors is how Borsa Istanbul will react. If the rate cut remains at 250 basis points, limited effects may be seen on the stock market. However, an aggressive cut between 350-500 basis points could bring buying to banking and industrial stocks, enabling Borsa Istanbul to exceed 11 thousand points.

However, according to analysts, this rise may be short-term. If new capital inflow into the stock market cannot be secured, figures above 11 thousand could be quickly reversed through profit-taking.

IF INTEREST RATES FALL, MONEY MAY FLEE TO FOREIGN CURRENCY

One of the fastest effects of an interest rate cut will be seen in the foreign exchange market. The 17.5 percent withholding tax increase on TL deposit interest, combined with an interest rate cut, could make the real return on the TL negative. This could redirect investors back to foreign currency.

Although the Central Bank continues to maintain tight exchange rate pressure, it is possible for the dollar/TL exchange rate to test levels above 41. Nevertheless, experts state that the Central Bank will not allow it to rise above this level.

RECORDS ARE COUNTING DOWN FOR GOLD

One of the investment instruments that will benefit most from an interest rate cut will be gold. As demand for gold increases both domestically and in global markets, the gram price of gold is expected to exceed the 4,500 TL level.

In international markets, it is estimated that the ounce price of gold could rise to 3,500 dollars, especially with economic moves expected from BRICS countries.

RETURNS ON DEPOSITS ARE MELTING AWAY

With the decision taken last week, the withholding tax rate applied to deposit interest was increased to 17.5 percent. The same rate has also become applicable to money market funds. This situation, combined with an interest rate cut, will further reduce the attractiveness of holding TL in the bank.

Economists predict that under these conditions, investors will turn to alternative return instruments and that TL-based savings will melt away rapidly.

HOUSING MARKET IN EXPECTATION

An interest rate cut could also trigger activity in the housing market. It is stated that with the decline in housing loan interest rates, stagnant housing sales, especially in large cities, could revive.