Warning on 'Marmara earthquake' from Kandilli

The issue of earthquakes, which causes the most anxiety for citizens living in the Marmara Region, especially in Istanbul, brings to the agenda the necessity of making buildings prepared.

Prof. Dr. Özel, a faculty member of the Department of Geophysics who was appointed as the Director of the Boğaziçi University Kandilli Observatory and Earthquake Research Institute, provided information about her projects and work.

Özel stated that she would conduct a study on new strategic goals and a vision for the Kandilli Observatory by also taking the opinions of academics.

Pointing out that the observatory should focus specifically on the Marmara Region in addition to its observation and research work across the entire country, Özel stated that the observation infrastructure there needs to be improved, developed, and diversified with new technologies such as DAS, which allows for the recording of earthquakes by using existing fiber optic cable infrastructures.

Expressing that they have submitted a project to a TÜBİTAK call as the Department of Geophysics Engineering regarding artificial intelligence, Özel said, "I want artificial intelligence applications to be developed at the observatory for the rapid resolution of earthquakes, the detection of phases, and their adaptation to geosciences research. I have such a goal in technology development."

Reminding that they have stations around the Sea of Marmara, Prof. Dr. Özel said, "Since 2012, there has been another component of the Kandilli Observatory. As the Regional and National Tsunami Warning Center, it serves 13 countries. It evaluates and reports whether there is such a danger in earthquakes above 5.5. Within the framework of our collaborations with AFAD, we have 20 more newly established stations. Thus, we have over 100 stations in Marmara."

IT WAS LEARNED WITH THE FEBRUARY 6 EARTHQUAKES THAT THE NARLI FAULT IS A SEISMIC JUNCTION

Touching upon the earthquakes that occurred on February 6, 2023, centered in Kahramanmaraş, and reminding that earth scientists, geologists, and geophysicists pointed out that the probability of an earthquake in that region was high, Özel said, "We did not know exactly how the Narlı fault, where this earthquake first started, interacted with the East Anatolian fault zone. Only short segments were visible in the region on the active fault map, but after this earthquake, we understood through the simulations we conducted how the Narlı fault interacted with the East Anatolian fault zone and how the rupture occurred along the EAF over time."

Stating that they continue their dynamic modeling studies regarding the earthquake, Özel expressed that they are also conducting a joint project with the Japanese and TÜBİTAK regarding the Kahramanmaraş earthquake. Prof. Dr. Özel noted that the World Bank provides financing for disasters experienced in countries, and that the United Nations (UN) also has an organization for the prevention and reduction of disaster damages, with 123 countries participating in this organization.

"IT IS NECESSARY TO BE PREPARED FOR AN EARTHQUAKE"

Özel made the following assessments regarding the expected earthquake in the Marmara Region:

-Because the fault in Marmara is in the sea and there are some uncertainties regarding which segment historical earthquakes ruptured and when, opinions among scientists also vary, differences arise, and discussions continue.

-My opinion on this matter is; instead of saying when, where it will rupture, and what size it will be, it is to create scenarios as if it will happen in various places and to calculate the damage potential of the earthquake that will occur.

-We do this with dynamic simulation. We performed simulations by changing the location of the possible earthquake along the fault and asked the fundamental questions sought.

-For example; where does it start, which segment ruptures? If the Adalar fault ruptured in 1894, when we put that in, the next earthquake could rupture the Kumburgaz segment, for instance.

Explaining that as the Kandilli Observatory, they are conducting studies on the earthquake and how it will affect the cities in the Marmara Region, Özel used the expression, "Because, the Sea of Marmara is certainly expecting an earthquake. There is a fault in Marmara and it has a recurrence period of between 150 and 350 years. It is necessary to be prepared. Preparations must be made starting from today."

Underlining that building reinforcement work should be accelerated in the cities in the Marmara Region, Özel said, "Human life is important. We saw this very well in the Kahramanmaraş earthquake, and at the same time, the Kahramanmaraş earthquake also showed that there are still things we do not know about nature. Every segment does not always work in the same way."

Noting that they are working on scenarios regarding the region and that one must be prepared for an earthquake, Özel stated, "Reinforcement is important, but reinforcement costs at least 30 percent of building costs. Since we also know people's financial situations, by pointing out that there are cheaper reinforcement methods in the world, external reinforcements can also be made by paying 5 percent of the building value instead of 30 percent. These technologies can also be popularized in Turkey to make progress in a short time."

Emphasizing the importance of popularizing this technology in Turkey, Özel noted the following:

-Buildings with low earthquake performance in the Marmara Region must be made prepared as soon as possible.

-Again, the Istanbul Metropolitan Municipality also has studies on the ground. All of these must be kept on the agenda for disaster.
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AFAD has good work. AFAD has also established Disaster and Emergency boards, and within the framework of the disaster response plan, we are conducting disaster preparedness work in a multi-dimensional manner on the same platform with all relevant institutions.

-I aim to combine all forces and develop collaborations with all university institutions and organizations that work in the Marmara Region and have observation stations.

WORKED WITH OVER 300 STATIONS IN 98 COUNTRIES

Stating that she worked with personnel from approximately 70 countries during her tenure, Prof. Dr. Özel said, "Almost every one of my personnel was from a different country. Managing such a multinational community gave me a separate experience, and I hope to reflect these experiences of mine in all my applications at the Kandilli Observatory."

Stating that for the last 8 years, with the approval of 183 states, she has been managing the International Monitoring System at the United Nations (UN) within the framework of the Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty, Özel expressed that they work with more than 300 stations and four different technologies in 98 countries.