Assad regime in Syria in the process of collapse: Reasons and latest developments

It is stated that the Bashar al-Assad administration in Syria is entering one of the most fragile periods in the country's history. An analysis published in the US-based foreign policy magazine Foreign Policy emphasized that economic collapse, the spread of organized crime, and the decline in international support have seriously shaken the Assad regime. The rapid advance of anti-regime groups and the shifting regional balances have pushed Syria's future into a more uncertain point than ever before.

NOT-SO-SURPRISING ATTACKS

In the last week, armed opposition groups, primarily Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), have captured approximately 250 settlements by advancing into the central and southern regions of the country with comprehensive operations launched from northern Syria. Cities of strategic importance, such as Aleppo, fell out of the hands of government forces in just 24 hours. This situation has once again revealed how fragile the Damascus administration is in military and logistical terms.

HTS has significantly increased its military capacity since 2020. It has managed to weaken regime forces with tools such as special operations units, thermal-equipped units for night operations, and modern cruise missiles. The losses the regime has suffered in Hama and Homs show that Assad's defense line has begun to collapse completely.

INEFFECTIVENESS OF RUSSIA AND IRAN

Russia and Iran, known as Assad's strongest supporters, are failing to save the regime this time. The investments Russia has made over the last eight years to restructure the Syrian army have yielded ineffective results. Militia groups have become a stronger military structure than the regime army. The interventions of Iran and Hezbollah on the ground have remained limited due to heavy losses.

Russia's war in Ukraine and Israel's operations against Iran in 2023 have made it even more difficult for these two countries to focus on Syria. Despite the attack plans announced by HTS in October, it has been noteworthy that Russia and Iran have been unable to provide an effective response.

ECONOMIC AND SOCIAL COLLAPSE

The Assad regime's primary fragility stems from the economic crisis rather than military failures. While the Syrian pound was 1,150 pounds to 1 dollar in 2020, it has fallen to 17,500 pounds today. While a large portion of the country's population lives below the poverty line, organized crime networks and drug trafficking have further deepened economic problems.

As Syria has become one of the largest producers of amphetamines worldwide, the income generated from this trade is falling into the hands of criminal networks rather than the public. This situation has also destroyed the last elements of unity within the regime.

DECLINE IN INTERNATIONAL SUPPORT

The isolation Assad is experiencing in the international arena is accelerating the regime's collapse process. The normalization steps that began with some Arab countries in 2023 could not provide lasting support to the Assad regime. Meanwhile, the interest of actors such as Europe and the US in the Syrian crisis has waned.

WHAT IS EXPECTED IN THE FUTURE?

The Damascus administration is under more pressure than ever due to the spread of organized crime, economic collapse, and the decline in international support. The increasing military power of opposition groups and their regional support are further breaking the regime's resistance. In this multi-faceted crisis environment facing the Assad administration, Syria's future is in great uncertainty.

Recent developments clearly show that the Syrian crisis is not in a "frozen" state and has entered a serious process of disintegration. How these changes in Syria will affect regional and global balances remains a matter of curiosity.