Faruk Bildirici catches the contradiction in the figures announced by Yerlikaya: 'The number of those returning to Syria he provided 20 days apart do not match'

Interior Minister Ali Yerlikaya made statements during the Anadolu Agency's Editor's Desk program.

During a portion of the program, Yerlikaya shared tables containing various data regarding the numbers of Syrians returning to their countries.

Media Ombudsman Faruk Bildirici drew attention to the contradiction in the statements Yerlikaya made on December 4 and December 24.

In his article titled "Yerlikaya's math is weak, the journalists' is even weaker," Bildirici stated, "The number of those returning to Syria, the number of Syrians in Turkey, and the numbers and proportions of Aleppans among the Syrians in Turkey that Yerlikaya provided 20 days apart do not match! It is impossible to understand which of the numbers and proportions announced by Yerlikaya are correct."

Here is Bildirici's article:

I understand, Interior Minister Ali Yerlikaya's math is weak, but the math of the journalists watching and listening to him must be even weaker. How did I reach this conclusion? From the two statements Yerlikaya made to journalists this month...

I have two news reports in front of me, both from Anadolu Agency. The first is the report regarding Yerlikaya's conversation with "Ankara representatives of media organizations at the Anadolu Broadcasters Federation's 'Anatolian Conversations' event" on December 4. The second is the December 24 AA report conveying what Yerlikaya said while he was a guest at the Anadolu Agency Editor's Desk.

Let me summarize immediately; the number of those returning to Syria, the number of Syrians in Turkey, and the numbers and proportions of Aleppans among the Syrians in Turkey that Yerlikaya provided 20 days apart do not match! It is impossible to understand which of the numbers and proportions announced by Yerlikaya are correct.

Is the number of returnees exaggerated?

On December 4, Yerlikaya gives the number of Syrians in Turkey as 2 million 937 thousand, and on December 24, he lowers this number to 2 million 920 thousand; the difference is 17 thousand. But at the AA Editor's Desk, Yerlikaya says exactly, "As of last night, from December 9, that is, within 15 days, the number of Syrians we have sent to Syria of their own free will has exceeded 25 thousand."

When you subtract 25 thousand from the number he gave on December 4, the number of Syrians remaining in Turkey should have dropped to 2 million 912 thousand, but the number of those remaining that he himself announced is 8 thousand higher. In fact, since the 25 thousand figure does not include those who returned to their country between December 4-9, the number of Syrians remaining in Turkey should have been even lower.

In this case, at least one of the numbers Yerlikaya gave regarding those remaining and those leaving must be wrong. Either Yerlikaya is stating the number of Syrians remaining in Turkey incorrectly, or he is announcing the number of those returning to their country as too high!

The number of Aleppans in Turkey

The numbers Yerlikaya announced regarding the number and proportion of Aleppans among the Syrians in Turkey also do not match.

On December 4, in response to the question "How many of the Syrians in Turkey are Aleppan?", Yerlikaya had said, "42 percent, that is 1 million 247 thousand 432 are Aleppan." On December 24, he spoke saying, "61 percent of the 2 million 920 thousand Syrians are Aleppan, this number is 1 million 239 thousand" and "When 60 percent of those arriving are Aleppan, naturally 11 thousand 393 of those who have left so far, almost nearly half, are Aleppan."

I didn't know where to start explaining these numbers. When you subtract the 11 thousand 933 Aleppans who returned to their country from the number of Aleppans he announced on December 4, we should reach approximately 1 million 236 thousand, but Yerlikaya announces the number of remaining Aleppans as 1 million 239 thousand. Even if we add the number of Aleppans he announced as having left to the number he said remained, Yerlikaya's announced numbers still do not match.

In this case, either the numbers of Aleppans in Turkey that Yerlikaya voiced are wrong, or the number of Aleppans returning to their country is not correct... Again, there may be an exaggeration regarding the number of those who left.

The proportion of Aleppans is also wrong

It inevitably became a complicated article loaded with numbers and percentages. But I must emphasize that the proportion of Aleppans among Syrians in Turkey announced by Yerlikaya is also wrong.

Yerlikaya expressed the number of Aleppans in Turkey as 42 percent on December 4, and on December 24, first as 61 percent, and then as 60 percent. However, 42 percent of the 2 million 937 thousand total Syrians that Yerlikaya announced on December 4 is not 1 million 247 thousand, but 1 million 233 thousand. And 61 percent of the 2 million 920 thousand Syrians he announced on December 24 would be 1 million 752 thousand.

There is a math problem here too. The proportion of Aleppans among Syrians in Turkey announced by Yerlikaya is also not correct, and what he says does not match. I was already suspicious of the strangeness in the numbers and proportions announced by Yerlikaya because he gave the proportion of Aleppans differently 20 days apart. When he said 42 percent in one statement and 60-61 percent in the other, I felt the need to examine it.

Of course, Yerlikaya might be conveying these numbers and proportions from notes given to him by bureaucrats. But he himself should also be careful, examine every note without reading it as is, and wake up immediately when different numbers are given at short intervals.

What I really don't understand is that the journalists sitting across from Yerlikaya immediately accept these mismatching numbers and proportions as correct and publish them. That they don't feel any suspicion, don't question, don't ask...

He also reduced the number of those who died in the explosion

Furthermore, Yerlikaya's problem with math is not limited to the numbers and proportions of Syrians and Aleppans. At the AA Editor's Desk, Yerlikaya first announced the number of those who died in the explosion at the factory in Balıkesir as 13, then corrected this number to 12. In the statement he made at the scene in the evening, he lowered this number to 11. The Directorate of Communications announced early in the morning, "Take into account the statements to be made by official sources. Do not give credence to baseless claims," but the official statements kept changing.

As a journalist of many years, I have witnessed the number of those who lost their lives in such disasters rise within hours, and administrators acting quite cautiously in announcing numbers. I had not seen an Interior Minister give a high number of deaths first and then gradually decrease it before.

I wish Yerlikaya would announce the number of Syrians in Turkey, the number and proportion of Aleppans among them, and the numbers of Syrians returning to their country in an orderly manner once more so we can learn which is correct. I hope my journalist colleagues will be more careful and more skeptical regarding the numbers and proportions announced by Yerlikaya and all authorities from now on.

A journalist should be skeptical, not believe everything they are told immediately; they should ask and investigate...