How did Iran’s 'Axis of Resistance' collapse?

If Israel is the biggest winner of recent regional developments, Iran is the biggest loser. The Middle East is witnessing Iran quietly turning inward. The changes in the region are so rapid and surprising that—unless it becomes radicalized—it is impossible for Iran to pose a deterrent threat to its eternal rivals, at least in the short term. Of course, this point was not reached in a single day. However, the developments that effectively dismantled the “Axis of Resistance,” which Iran had built in the region over the past 40 years based on opposition to the US and Israel, have taken place within the last year.

THE ASSASSINATION OF QASEM SOLEIMANI: THE BEGINNING OF THE END

The killing of Revolutionary Guard Commander Qasem Soleimani on January 3, 2020, was the beginning of the end for the “Axis of Resistance.” Qasem Soleimani was a strategist who could skillfully mobilize the human resources of the Axis of Resistance while simultaneously projecting power across the Middle East without leaving a trace. For this reason, the Soleimani assassination created a symbolic vulnerability that shook the ideological narrative of the Axis of Resistance as much as it was a tactical blow. Following Qasem Soleimani, the Axis of Resistance faltered but did not enter a rapid collapse process. Although Esmail Qaani could not charismatically fill Soleimani’s shoes, he was able to manage the process without causing serious erosion to Iran’s interests, particularly in Syria and Lebanon.

IRAN’S INTERNAL CRISES AND THE LOSS OF LEGITIMACY OF THE “AXIS OF RESISTANCE”

This was a period when Assad was considered to have “won” in Syria, reconstruction efforts were being discussed, and Iran had declared itself victorious in Syria; therefore, the “Axis of Resistance” was perhaps being portrayed as stronger than ever in its history. However, the greatest threat to the “Axis of Resistance” was coming from within Iran. For the Iranian people, who were already frequently taking to the streets due to economic bottlenecks, the Mahsa Amini incident ignited a mass uprising against the Iranian regime. Millions of people were essentially fighting for “freedom.” However, one of the most important pillars of the anti-regime “struggle” was the Iranian foreign policy legitimized through the rhetoric of the “Axis of Resistance.” While the Axis of Resistance was consuming the resources of the Iranian people through proxy wars, it was protecting not Iran, but Iran’s military-theological elites.

THE GAZA WAR AND THE DEEP CRISIS OF THE “AXIS OF RESISTANCE”

After October 7, 2023, events in Gaza began to wear down the Axis of Resistance completely. The fact that Iran was the loudest voice from the Islamic world against Israel throughout the Gaza war, and that Iran also provided support to Gaza through the Houthis, did not mean the Axis of Resistance was not gaining some legitimacy. However, an important dimension of Israel’s Gaza strategy was to sever the link between Iran and Hamas and to confine Iran within its own borders.

LEADERSHIP LOSS AND STRATEGIC VULNERABILITIES

The crash of the helicopter carrying high-level Iranian officials, including Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi and Foreign Minister Hossein Amir-Abdollahian, in May 2024 sparked further debates. The incident was declared an “accident.” However, the matter was never actually clarified. Did the helicopter crash as a result of an accident? Or was there another assassination involved, either from within or outside Iran? Regardless, Iran fell from the image of a regional power that designs the entire Middle East, establishes its own proxy statelets in Iraq and Syria, and extends as far as Yemen, to the position of a state that cannot even protect its own President. Iran’s decision to put its President on a makeshift, insecure helicopter, its failure during search-and-rescue operations, and the amateurism in the photos released to the press increased question marks regarding Iran’s capability to protect an “Axis of Resistance.” This is especially true given that a significant dimension of the Axis of Resistance was the narrative that Iran, despite heavy sanctions and isolation, possessed technological deterrence.

CAN THERE BE AN “AXIS OF RESISTANCE” WITHOUT HEZBOLLAH?

The killing of Ismail Haniyeh by Israel in Tehran was one of the most important moves that accelerated the collapse of the Axis of Resistance. This assassination clearly demonstrated once again that Israel, through the Gaza war, was also targeting Iran and the Axis of Resistance, which is the greatest regional threat to Israel. The political wing leader of Hamas, who maintained ties with Iran, had been killed in the heart of the Iranian state. This symbolic move revealed both Israel’s strategic superiority over Iran and the intelligence gap of the Iranian state. The attacks Iran carried out as retaliation against Israel could not go beyond being symbolic and appealing to the domestic public.

Subsequently, the successive ambushing of high-level Hamas leaders and, in particular, Hezbollah leaders like Hassan Nasrallah, meant a major destruction for Iran and the Axis of Resistance. Hassan Nasrallah was Iran’s forward force in the Mediterranean and the heart of the Axis of Resistance. The collapse of Hezbollah’s military influence capacity also meant that the Axis of Resistance suffered damage that would be difficult to repair. This is because Hezbollah was an ideological lever not only militarily through its militias but also in terms of organizing Shia Arabs in favor of Iran along sectarian lines.

THE DEPARTURE OF ASSAD AND THE DISINTEGRATION OF THE “AXIS OF RESISTANCE”

The biggest blow to the Axis of Resistance was Assad’s abandonment of Syria and the establishment of an Israeli-backed or approved HTS regime in Syria. When the Assad administration, to which Iran had transferred massive financial and human resources and for which it had engaged in a great struggle, abandoned Syria overnight, the Western leg of the Axis of Resistance completely collapsed from Iran’s perspective. Iran’s connection with Hezbollah was severed, and its gains in Syria were completely wiped out. Once the “secular” Baath administration, which Iran clung to like a lifeline, was gone, Syria joined the ranks of Sunni Arab countries surrounding Iran in the region. Currently, what remains in Iran’s hands in the name of the Axis of Resistance is a group of Iraqi Shias whose loyalty to the Iranian regime is questioned, and the regional depth it might have through the Houthis. Whether Iran can build a new Axis of Resistance for itself with forces that are weak, insufficiently organized, and have weak organic ties to Iran remains a major mystery.