'In three shakes of a lamb's tail...' What is the latest situation at the 'gates of hell' along with Lebanon?

12punto columnist and journalist Bahadır Selim Dilek penned an article discussing Hamas's October 7 attack, Israel's subsequent attacks on the Gaza Strip and then Lebanon, as well as the death of Nasrallah. 

"After Hamas's attack on October 7, 2023, it was more or less clear that the matter would reach this point. At that time, we had asked, 'Will the gates of hell open?'" said Dilek, who also made assessments regarding Israel's next step.

'IS IRAN THE ULTIMATE TARGET?'

Dilek stated the following:

"While Israel has achieved what it considers a significant tactical success by killing Nasrallah, will it risk putting soldiers into southern Lebanon and suffering casualties there, one way or another; or, while everyone expects this, will it launch a comprehensive operation against Syria directly through the Golan Heights; or, with the US stepping in, will its ultimate target be Iran; we will learn the answers to these questions by living through them in the near future."

'LEBANON FACES A NEW PERIOD FULL OF UNCERTAINTIES'

The relevant section of Dilek's article, where he also touches upon Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah, is as follows:

He was an extremely important figure for Lebanon. Since 1992, he had effectively made Hezbollah a state within a state. Its militants were Lebanon's unofficial army and had undertaken the defense of not just the Shiites, but everyone in the country. Despite being represented by 13 deputies in Parliament, he had become the determinant of domestic politics. He had the support of Sunnis, Christians, and Druze, as well as Shiites.

It would not be wrong to say that with his death, a new period full of uncertainties has emerged for Lebanon.

'THE SHIITE CRESCENT IS STRENGTHENING'

But it is worth emphasizing with a thick pen; when dealing with the Middle East, one must be free from sentimentality, ideological commitment, and bigotry, and most importantly, one must not lose touch with concrete reality.

Neither does Israel perish by saying 'Down with Israel,' nor does the Shiite Crescent in the Middle East strengthen by saying 'Long live the resistance front.'

'FAULT LINES WILL BECOME MORE FRAGILE'

The issue is not about being right or wrong, conscientious or unscrupulous, merciful or ruthless!

Those who invest in science, technology, education, production, and their people win in some way. Religion, faith, and scripture only go so far. Even if they are morally right to the end, those who base their politics and strategy on 7th-century Arab tales ultimately end up disappointed.

Unfortunately, this is the cold, hard reality.

The fact that Netanyahu, an undeniable racist, is ruthlessly committing war crimes does not change this reality. One needs to look at the issue with the eye of reason, without resorting to simplifications like 'Well, America is behind him.'

So, what comes next...

Developments in the last three months point to a significant fracture in this geography.

'IT IS OPENLY REIGNING TERROR'

Whether dramatic changes will be triggered in the Middle East is hard to say at this stage, but it is clear that the constantly high tension in the region will make the political, military, and strategic fault lines more fragile.

The Shiite Crescent, stretching from Iraq and Syria to Lebanon, seems to be slowly ceasing to be a military and strategic pressure element on Israel. The Tehran administration's recent tendency to maintain a lower profile, its hesitation to retaliate under various pretexts, the signs of softening in its rhetoric, and the new President's eagerness to conduct back-channel diplomacy with those in Washington are not very auspicious signs.

Netanyahu, feeling the unconditional support of the US behind him, is acting like a dog roaming freely in a village without a master.

It is openly reigning terror.

For instance, if Hezbollah is removed from the equation, a significant gap will open in Lebanon's defense.

'IS THE GMEI WORKING DIFFERENTLY NOW?'

While Israel has achieved what it considers a significant tactical success by killing Nasrallah, will it risk putting soldiers into southern Lebanon and suffering casualties there, one way or another; or, while everyone expects this, will it launch a comprehensive operation against Syria directly through the Golan Heights; or, with the US stepping in, will its ultimate target be Iran; we will learn the answers to these questions by living through them in the near future.

The Greater Middle East Initiative (GMEI), which hit a wall during the Arab Spring, is now working in a different way.

But before concluding the article, let's ask the ten-point expert question. While the Middle East is burning, what measures are those who hold power in the country taking to keep us out of this fire, or let's ask openly, are they taking any measures at all; or are they intending to put the gear completely into neutral, saying 'the ship has sunk anyway, as long as I keep my seat'?

As always, leaving the answer to the discernment of our readers, let us put a period to our article."